It snowed yesterday in parts of the Texas Panhandle.
Yes, really. In May.
The good news, depending on your point of view, is that we are not expecting a repeat of that anytime soon. The focus now shifts back to scattered showers and storms across parts of Texas today, Friday, and into the weekend.
This does not look like a big, widespread severe weather setup for Texas. That is nice to say after the past few weeks. But there will still be some storms around, and a few may be strong enough to produce hail, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rain.
Showers and storms continue today
We have already had a few showers and storms this morning into early afternoon across the Edwards Plateau and parts of the Hill Country.
These have not been a repeat of Wednesday morning’s nasty hailers, thankfully. Some storms have produced frequent lightning, heavy rain, and small hail, but the overall severe weather risk is not especially high today.
Through the afternoon and evening, some of those showers and storms may continue moving toward portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. We will keep an eye on anything that tries to strengthen, but we are not expecting baseball-size hail or a widespread severe storm event today.
Knock on wood, because apparently Mother Nature hears everything.
Storm chances increase tonight into Friday
Going into tonight and Friday, scattered showers and storms may increase across South Texas, the Rio Grande Plains, the Edwards Plateau, the Coastal Bend, and the Coastal Plains.
One model suggests a cluster of storms could try to move out of the Laredo area and the Rio Grande Plains toward the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains Friday night. That is not written in stone, but it is worth watching since storms in that kind of setup can produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and some hail.
This is not a forecast where everyone gets rain at the same time. It is more of a scattered setup, and exact storm placement will matter.
Weekend rain chances favor the southeastern half of Texas
Rain and storm chances continue into the weekend across several regions of Texas.
The better chances look to favor the eastern two-thirds of the state at times, with the highest rain chances across the southeastern half of Texas. That includes Southeast Texas, the Golden Triangle, East Texas, the Brazos Valley, the Coastal Bend, the Coastal Plains, South Texas, and nearby areas.
By Sunday, we may also need to watch for storms trying to move south out of Oklahoma into parts of Northwest Texas, the Big Country, North Texas, and Texoma. Some of those storms could be on the strong side if they make it south of the Red River.
That is something we will fine-tune as we get closer.
This does not look like a weekend washout
There will be rain and storm chances this weekend, but that does not mean every location is dealing with a washout.
This is the kind of pattern where one town may get a healthy downpour while another town nearby gets little or nothing. That is why broad rain maps should be treated as a general guide, not a backyard guarantee.
If you have outdoor plans this weekend, especially across the southern and southeastern half of Texas, keep an eye on the radar. Do not cancel everything based on the word “storm,” but do have a way to check weather updates.
Localized flooding is possible, but widespread flooding is not expected
Rain totals through Tuesday morning look highest across the eastern half of Texas, especially Southeast Texas, the Golden Triangle, East Texas, and the Brazos Valley. Some areas may pick up over an inch of rain, perhaps closer to two inches in spots.
Some folks will get less. Some folks may get more. That is how thunderstorm rainfall works.
Additional rounds of rain are expected across Texas through early next week, with heavier totals focused in East and Southeast Texas.
If multiple heavier storms move over the same location, localized street flooding or poor drainage flooding may develop. That is especially true in urban areas or spots that have already had recent rain.
At this point, though, this does not look like a widespread high-end flooding event.
Fire danger looks much better for most of Texas
One bit of good news: fire danger looks much better than it did for a good chunk of March and April.
Overall fire danger over the next several days should remain mostly low across Texas, with only a small area of somewhat higher concern in parts of the Panhandle and western Texas.
That does not mean folks out west are suddenly in great shape. Many areas still need rain badly after a very dry April. Unfortunately, this forecast does not offer much meaningful rain for a lot of western Texas.
Temperatures warm back up this weekend
Today is on the cooler side for May across much of Texas, with highs mostly in the 70s and some 80s farther south and west.
That will not last long.
Friday starts warming back up, especially in Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, the Big Bend, Northwest Texas, and parts of the Panhandle. By Saturday, 90s return across the western third to western half of Texas, including the Panhandle, Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, Big Bend, and the Borderland.
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will also be back in the 90s, while much of the rest of Texas sits in the 80s.
Sunday stays warm, with most areas in the 80s and 90s. Next week looks warmer overall, and parts of Texas may start feeling more summer-like again.
Pattern may quiet down next week
After the weekend, the upper-level jet stream looks to stay mostly north of Texas.
That is more of a summer-like pattern, and it usually means fewer organized severe weather setups. We may still see isolated storms here and there, because it is May and we still have humidity, heating, and boundaries to work with. But the overall pattern does not look as active as what we dealt with recently.
We may need to watch late next week for a possible uptick in storm chances, but that is still out in weather model voodoo land.
Bottom line
Scattered showers and storms will continue at times through the weekend.
The better rain chances favor the southeastern half of Texas, including Southeast Texas, the Golden Triangle, East Texas, the Brazos Valley, South Texas, the Coastal Bend, and the Coastal Plains. Some storms may produce hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain.
A few stronger storms are possible, but there is no big widespread severe weather risk currently forecast for Texas over the next few days.
Localized flooding may happen where heavier storms repeat over the same area, but widespread flooding is not expected right now.
So keep the radar handy, enjoy the cooler May weather while it lasts, and get ready for warmer temperatures to return this weekend.
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