Texas is about to make one of those weather pattern flips we talk about for weeks, then still somehow get annoyed by once it actually happens.
Today starts with extreme wildfire danger across the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, parts of the Permian Basin, and the Guadalupe Mountains. By later this week, the main concern shifts toward repeated thunderstorms, widespread heavy rain, flash flooding, rising creeks and streams, and eventually river flooding concerns.
In other words, we are going from fire and dust to water problems. Welcome to Texas.
Watch the full Texas Weather Roundup video below for the latest on today’s extreme wildfire danger, severe storm chances, Tuesday’s cold front, and the growing heavy rain and flooding concern later this week.
Extreme wildfire danger today
The most urgent concern today is wildfire danger across the Panhandle and West Texas.
South-southwest winds may gust 40 to 50 mph this afternoon, humidity values will drop below 10 percent, and temperatures will climb well into the 90s. Any new fire that develops, or any ongoing fire that escapes containment, could move quickly toward the north, northeast, or east at 3 to 5 mph.
That may not sound fast until you are talking about a wind-driven grass fire. In that setup, a fire can cover ground quickly, threaten roads, jump containment lines, and become very difficult to stop.
This is not the kind of day to be careless with anything that can start a fire. Avoid outdoor burning, welding, dragging chains, tossing cigarette butts, or doing anything that can throw sparks into dry grass.
If an evacuation order is issued for your area, it is time to skedaddle. Do not wait around to see if the fire is really coming your way.
Wind shift could complicate ongoing fires tonight
A cold front arrives this evening, and that will bring a northerly wind shift.
That matters because ongoing fires can suddenly change direction when winds flip around. Firefighters may spend the day dealing with fires moving one direction, only to have those fires start running a different direction once the front arrives.
That is dangerous for firefighting operations and for anyone near an active fire.
Fire danger should remain on the high side Tuesday across parts of the Panhandle and West Texas, but cooler temperatures and somewhat higher humidity should keep the threat lower than today. By Wednesday and beyond, fire danger should drop off more substantially as the wetter pattern starts taking over.
Severe storms possible today east of the dryline
We also have a severe storm risk today, mainly east of the dryline.
Scattered storms may develop from roughly the eastern Texas Panhandle and Northwest Texas south toward parts of the Big Country and areas near Sweetwater late this afternoon into this evening. The main window looks to be around 4 PM through late evening.
Any storm that develops in that environment may become strong quickly, with large to very large hail and damaging straight-line wind gusts over 60 to 70 mph possible.
The tornado threat is very low today. It is not zero, but hot surface temperatures and high cloud bases should keep that risk much lower than the more substantial tornado threat farther north in Kansas and Nebraska.
Storms should weaken as they move east later this evening, though a few strong wind issues may linger near where storms dissipate.
Severe storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across parts of West Texas, the South Plains, Northwest Texas, and North Texas.
Tuesday brings more widespread storms
Tuesday will be a busier thunderstorm day for Texas.
As the cold front moves south, showers and thunderstorms should develop along and behind the boundary. Storm coverage should increase by late morning or early afternoon across parts of Texoma, Northwest Texas, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and areas farther east, then continue south through the afternoon, evening, and Tuesday night.
This does not look like a big tornado day. The tornado threat Tuesday appears extremely low.
A broader severe storm risk is expected Tuesday from West Texas into North Texas, Central Texas, and parts of East Texas.
However, there should be plenty of storms. Some may produce hail, damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and a whole lot of lightning. As always, when thunder roars, get your keister indoors.
Storms will continue moving south into Wednesday morning, which means some locations may see storms during the overnight or early morning hours.
The bigger story is heavy rain and flooding
The biggest forecast change is not just one day of storms. It is the pattern that follows.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this week, this weekend, and potentially into next week. That means soils that are not saturated today may become saturated by midweek. After that, additional rain will run off more efficiently into streets, creeks, streams, and rivers.
That is how we go from “good rain” to “we have a flooding problem.”
At first, the main concern will be flash flooding. That is the rapid-onset flooding that happens when heavy rain falls too quickly, producing street flooding, water over low-water crossings, and fast rises on smaller creeks and streams.
The Hill Country, Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, East Texas, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and other areas along and east of I-35 will need to pay close attention if heavier rain bands repeat over the same locations.
Rain totals could add up quickly
Forecast rainfall through Saturday morning already shows widespread 2 to 5 inch totals possible across parts of the eastern half of Texas. That includes parts of the Hill Country, Central Texas, North Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, South Texas, the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, Concho Valley, and nearby regions.
Forecast rain totals from today through Saturday morning show widespread rain chances across Texas, with the highest totals expected across Central, East, and Southeast Texas.
That only covers part of the event.
Some areas may receive less than the map shows. Others could easily receive double, especially where multiple thunderstorms move over the same area. That means a few spots could end up with totals closer to 8 to 10 inches over several days.
If that happens, flash flooding will become a problem.
River flooding may become a longer-duration issue
Flash flooding is the short-term problem. River flooding is the longer-duration concern.
As rain falls over several days, runoff will eventually work its way into creeks, streams, and larger rivers. That means some rivers across the eastern half to eastern two-thirds of Texas may rise into flood stage over the next 10 days.
That does not mean every river floods or every river reaches major flood stage. It does mean anyone with property, livestock, equipment, campsites, or interests near flood-prone creeks and rivers should start paying attention now.
The good news is that many lakes and flood-control systems have room right now. The issue is getting all that water through creeks, streams, low-water crossings, and smaller rivers before it gets there.
Wet pattern may continue through late May
The Climate Prediction Center continues to show a wetter-than-average signal through the end of May.
That does not mean it rains every hour of every day. It means the overall pattern supports repeated thunderstorm chances and additional rainfall opportunities. If we start stacking rain events on top of saturated ground, flooding concerns will increase.
We have been talking for a while about the eventual switch from drought and fire weather to a wetter pattern.
Well, here we go.
Not everyone will flood. Not everyone will see the same rain totals. But the overall pattern is about to turn much wetter, and it may stay that way for a while.
Heat and humidity before the front
Ahead of the front today, much of Texas will be hot and humid.
Highs will climb near triple digits across parts of the Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, Big Bend, and South Texas. Elsewhere, highs will mostly be in the upper 80s and low 90s, but with enough humidity to make it feel obnoxious outside.
Tonight will stay muggy across the eastern three-quarters of Texas, with lows in the mid to upper 70s and even some low 80s. Behind the front, the Panhandle cools down quickly, with much lower temperatures tonight.
Tuesday brings the cold front south, rain chances increase, and temperatures begin dropping across the northern third of Texas. By Wednesday and Thursday, cloud cover and rain chances will help keep many areas in the 70s and 80s, though South Texas will likely remain warmer.
Bottom line
Texas is starting the week with extreme wildfire danger across the Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, and the Guadalupe Mountains.
A wind shift tonight may complicate any ongoing fires. Then, starting Tuesday and continuing through the rest of the week, the pattern flips toward repeated storms, widespread rain, and increasing flooding concerns.
Some storms may produce hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning, but the bigger story becomes the multi-day rainfall setup. Flash flooding may become an issue first, followed by rising creeks, streams, and rivers later this week into next week.
We are going from fire to flood. That does not mean panic. It does mean pay attention, especially if you live near low-water crossings, flood-prone roads, creeks, streams, or rivers.
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