The wet pattern is taking over across Texas, and this is not looking like a one-day deal.
We have rain and storms on the way today, tonight, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, this weekend, and likely into next week. No, that does not mean it rains every minute of every day at your house. It does mean the overall pattern has flipped, and repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms are going to become a problem for some folks.
At first, some of this rain will be beneficial. We need rain in many areas. But as we have said plenty of times before, Texas droughts have a bad habit of ending in flood. That does not mean everyone floods. It does mean we need to start paying close attention to where the heaviest rain bands repeat over the same areas.
Watch the full Texas Weather Roundup video below for the latest on today’s severe storm risk, heavy rain potential, and the growing flood concern across Texas over the next several days.
Panhandle and West Texas fire danger improves after today
Before we get fully into the rain and flood side of the forecast, we need to talk about the Panhandle and West Texas.
Monday was a rough day. The Stinky Fire near the Amarillo city landfill jumped a ravine after being contained for much of the day, then spread rapidly toward the Wildland Urban Interface near Bishop Estate southwest of Bishop Hills. There was structure loss, and our thoughts are with everyone impacted.
A separate fire near Interstate 27 around Kress, south of Amarillo and Tulia, also came dangerously close to becoming a much larger problem. Fortunately, crews were able to get a better handle on that one.
Fire danger remains very high to locally extreme today across parts of the Panhandle and West Texas, but conditions should improve considerably after today. The overall pattern is shifting from fire weather into a much wetter setup.
Severe storms possible today and tonight
Scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon into tonight as a cold front moves south across Texas.
The main severe storm risk includes parts of the Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau, eastern Big Bend, Hill Country, Central Texas, South Central Texas, and southern North Texas. The eastern third of Texas has been lowered to more of an isolated severe storm risk, but plenty of storms are still expected across the southeastern two-thirds of the state.
The strongest storms today may produce hail, localized damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. The damaging wind threat may be the most common severe hazard, but hail could still be an issue, especially across the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and southern Concho Valley. A few hailstones may exceed golf ball size, with isolated tennis ball-size hail not out of the question.
A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, but that is not the main story today.
The bigger issue for most folks will be lightning, strong winds, hail in spots, and heavy rain.
Multiple rounds of storms through the week
One problem with this kind of pattern is that model data will not perfectly nail down who gets a storm at exactly what hour. There are too many storms, too many boundaries, and too many small-scale interactions.
So the message is not “this exact storm will hit this exact town at this exact time.”
The message is that multiple rounds of rain and storms are expected. Some areas may get a storm today, another round Wednesday night, more rain Thursday, another round Saturday, and then more storms next week. Others may miss a few rounds and still get rain later.
The highest rain and storm coverage over the next several days should favor the eastern two-thirds of Texas, but rain chances will not be limited to only one region.
Flooding risk will increase
The flood risk starts locally, then grows with time.
Initially, we will watch for flash flooding, especially where heavy storms repeat over the same area. That means street flooding, water over low-water crossings, rapid rises on creeks and streams, and poor drainage issues.
The first more focused flash-flood concern may show up tonight across parts of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Central Texas. In later days, that risk expands across more of the eastern two-thirds of Texas.
Once soils become saturated, additional rain runs off faster. That is when flooding can become more efficient and more widespread.
Rain totals could be significant
Forecast rainfall through Sunday morning shows a broad 2 to 6 inches of rain possible across the eastern two-thirds of Texas.
That includes parts of North Texas, Central Texas, South Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, the ArkLaTex, Hill Country, Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, Rio Grande Plains, and nearby regions. Some folks will get less. Some folks may get much more.
A few locations could exceed 10 inches by Sunday morning if storms repeat over the same areas.
That is where we will have problems.
The maps are not backyard rain gauge guarantees. They are regional guidance. When thunderstorms are involved, one town may get two inches while another nearby town gets six or eight. That is how you end up with localized flash flooding even if the broader regional map does not look catastrophic at first glance.
Widespread rain remains in the forecast across Texas through Sunday morning, with the highest totals focused from Central and South-Central Texas into East and Southeast Texas.
Creeks, streams, and rivers will need watching
Flash flooding is the quick-hit problem. River flooding is the slower problem.
As rain continues over multiple days, creeks, streams, and rivers will start responding. We are likely to see many tributaries and river basins across the eastern half of Texas go into active flow, with some potentially reaching flood stage over the next week.
Some rivers may reach minor flood stage. A few could eventually reach moderate or even major flood stage if heavier rain repeatedly falls in the same basins.
If you have property, livestock, equipment, RVs, campsites, or low-lying interests near creeks, streams, rivers, or flood-prone roads, now is the time to start paying attention. Do not wait until water is already rising.
The good news is that most lakes and flood-control systems have room right now. The issue is getting all that water through the smaller creeks, streams, and rivers before it reaches those reservoirs.
Rain continues beyond Sunday
The rainfall map through Sunday morning is not the whole event.
Rain chances are expected to continue into next week. That means areas that get soaked this week may have more rounds of rain after the weekend. That is why flood concerns may continue increasing even after the first few rounds of storms move through.
The eastern two-thirds of Texas may see drought conditions improve significantly over the next 7 to 10 days. That is good news. But beneficial rain can become excessive rain when it keeps falling over saturated ground.
That is the line we are going to be watching very closely.
Temperatures cool behind the front, but humidity sticks around
The front moving south will help cool down parts of Texas, especially the northern half of the state.
Today, the northern half of Texas is already cooler, with many areas in the 70s. South of the front, it remains hot and humid, with 90s across southern Texas. By Wednesday, cooler temperatures should push farther south, with highs mostly in the 60s, 70s, and lower 80s north of Interstate 10. South Texas and the coast will stay warmer.
This is not a major cold snap. There is no freeze issue here. The bigger impact from the front is that it helps set the stage for clouds, storms, cooler afternoons in some areas, and repeated rainfall chances.
With plenty of moisture still around, overnight lows will stay mild and muggy in many areas.
Bottom line
Texas is heading into a wet and active pattern.
Scattered severe storms are possible today and tonight, mainly with damaging winds, hail, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and a very low but non-zero tornado risk.
The bigger concern is flooding.
Multiple rounds of rain and storms are expected through the rest of the week, the weekend, and likely into next week. A broad 2 to 6 inches of rain is possible across the eastern two-thirds of Texas by Sunday morning, with isolated totals over 10 inches possible where storms repeat.
Flash flooding, street flooding, low-water crossings, rapid creek and stream rises, and eventually river flooding may all become concerns.
We need the rain. We just do not need all of it in the same places too quickly.