Watch the full Texas Weather Roundup video below for the latest on today’s storm chances, localized flooding concerns, and the continued wet pattern across Texas.
More storms are back in the Texas forecast today, tonight, Thursday, and into the weekend.
We had an active evening and overnight across parts of Central Texas, the Hill Country, Southeast Texas, and the Coastal Plains. Thunderstorms moved southeast across the state, bringing heavy rain, lightning, and some gusty winds on the backside of the storm complex. That backside wind setup is known as a wake low, or descending air behind a thunderstorm complex, and it made things a bit noisy for some folks.
Now we are already watching the next round.
As of the lunchtime hour, thunderstorms were developing across the Permian Basin, West Texas, and the eastern Big Bend. Those storms are the beginning of the next round of thunderstorm activity that will take us through this afternoon, tonight, and into Thursday morning.
Severe storm risk today and tonight
The main severe storm risk today and tonight is focused across the Big Bend, Trans-Pecos, the Fort Stockton area, the Edwards Plateau, and the Permian Basin.
The strongest storms may produce hail up to the size of tennis balls and localized damaging wind gusts over 70 mph. The tornado threat is very low, but not completely zero.
That does not mean everyone in those areas gets severe weather. It does mean the storms that manage to become stronger could be rowdy enough to cause problems.
The bigger issue for many areas will be heavy rain, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and localized flooding where storms repeat or move slowly.
Heavy rain and flash flooding concerns
The Weather Prediction Center highlights a risk for isolated to scattered flash flooding this afternoon, tonight, and into Thursday morning across parts of the Concho Valley, Big Country, Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, Hill Country, and South Central Texas.
That risk is tied to the next round of storms developing out west and moving into Central and South Central Texas.
By Thursday, rain should continue across the eastern half of Texas, with localized to scattered flash flooding possible there as well. Severe storm chances may be lower Thursday, but heavy rain and lightning can still cause problems.
Flash flooding will be most likely where storms sit over the same areas, especially in the Hill Country, urban corridors, construction zones, and low-water crossings.
Forecast models are struggling right now
This is one of those weather patterns where model data is useful, but not gospel.
The high-resolution models have already struggled today. Some guidance did not even have storms developing in the Permian Basin by early afternoon, and yet storms were already underway.
That is why the exact timing and location of storms will be messy. We can identify the broader areas at risk, but trying to tell you the exact town and exact hour for every storm is not honest forecasting.
The better message is simple: storm chances continue today, tonight, Thursday, and into the weekend. Keep radar handy and expect changes.
Rain chances continue daily
Rain chances will continue almost every day into the weekend and early next week.
That does not mean it rains every day in every region of Texas. It does not mean your entire weekend is automatically washed out. Some folks will get multiple rounds of rain, while others may miss out on a few rounds.
Going into tonight, storms already underway in the Permian Basin should continue developing into the Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Central Texas, and South Central Texas.
Thursday looks wet across the eastern half of Texas.
Friday may bring lower storm coverage, but showers and storms will still be possible across several regions, especially the eastern half to eastern two-thirds of the state.
Then additional rain chances continue Saturday, Sunday, and probably Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Several more inches of rain possible
Several inches of additional rainfall will be possible across the eastern two-thirds of Texas over the next several days.
Some locations may receive over five additional inches of rain. As we saw last night, a localized area can pick up five inches in only a couple of hours if a slow-moving heavy storm sits overhead.
That is not going to happen everywhere. Most places will not see that kind of short-term rainfall. But where it does happen, flash flooding can develop quickly.
This is not a forecast for every location in Texas to be inundated. It is a forecast where localized flooding becomes a recurring problem, especially as rounds of storms keep moving through.
Flood watches may be needed soon
With daily rain chances continuing, flood watches may be needed soon for eastern and southern portions of Texas.
We already have flash flooding occurring in spots today, including a flash flood warning around Andrews, north of Odessa, as storms produce heavy rain.
There will likely be more flash flood warnings as the day goes on and additional storms develop.
Over time, the concern will shift from quick street flooding and low-water crossings to a broader issue of saturated soils, higher runoff, and rising creeks, streams, and rivers.
That part of the forecast becomes more important later this week, this weekend, and early next week.
Temperature trends
Temperatures are all over the place today, which is pretty normal when we have a front and widespread storm chances involved.
Highs today are mostly in the 60s across the West Texas Panhandle, 70s across the Concho Valley, North Texas, Big Country, and Northwest Texas, and 80s across the eastern half of the state. South Texas will still climb into the 90s.
Tonight will be muggy and humid across the southeastern two-thirds of Texas, with lows in the 60s and 70s. Farther west, lows fall into the 50s, with 40s in the Panhandle.
Thursday brings highs mostly in the 70s and 80s across Texas, with 90s still possible in parts of the Trans-Pecos, Big Bend, and South Texas.
Friday turns warmer again across the Permian Basin, Big Country, and Trans-Pecos, with mid-90s possible and upper 90s in the Big Bend. South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will also climb into the low to mid-90s, while most other areas stay in the 80s.
This weekend looks seasonably warm, with highs mostly in the 80s and some low 90s. Rain chances continue.
Bottom line
More storms are developing across Texas today, and additional rounds of rain and storms will continue tonight, Thursday, and into the weekend.
The strongest storms today may produce hail up to tennis ball size and damaging winds over 70 mph, mainly across parts of the Big Bend, Trans-Pecos, Fort Stockton area, Edwards Plateau, and Permian Basin.
Heavy rain and localized flooding are also concerns, especially across the Concho Valley, Big Country, Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains, South Central Texas, and eventually the eastern half of Texas.
This is not a guaranteed flood event for everyone. It is a repeated-rain pattern where some locations may get hit multiple times, and those are the places that can run into trouble.
Keep an eye on radar today, tonight, and through the next several days. We will have more updates as needed.