Memorial Day weekend is here, and Texas weather apparently decided it wanted to stay busy.
We have multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next several days. Some storms today may become severe across western parts of the state, while Saturday brings a broader storm setup with heavy rain and localized flooding concerns, especially where storms move over areas that have already been soaked over the last week.
This is not a “rain every minute everywhere” forecast. Some folks will miss out at times. Others may get hit more than once. The places that get repeated storms are where problems can add up quickly.
Watch the full Texas Weather Roundup video below for the latest on today’s severe storm risk, Saturday’s flooding concerns, and the unsettled weather pattern continuing into Memorial Day and next week.
Severe storms possible today in western Texas
Today’s severe storm risk is highest across western parts of Texas, including the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Big Country, Northwest Texas, and nearby areas.
That includes places like Amarillo, Childress, Plainview, Lubbock, Abilene, Sweetwater, Colorado City, Snyder, Quanah, Vernon, and surrounding communities. A lower severe storm risk also extends south into parts of the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau.
The main hazards today are large hail and damaging winds. The strongest storms may produce hail up to tennis ball size and localized damaging wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph.
The hail threat will be highest with storms while they are still more isolated late this afternoon into early evening. If storms grow into clusters or a line, the wind threat may increase, especially with the amount of heat in place.
The tornado risk today is very low, but not completely zero. We will keep an eye on west-central Texas this afternoon, but this is not a classic tornado-focused setup.
Storms continue tonight
Storms that develop across western Texas this afternoon may continue northeast or east into tonight.
Parts of North Texas, Texoma, and Central Texas may see storms later today or tonight with locally heavy rain, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and some hail.
Not everyone will see storms tonight, but anyone with outdoor Friday evening plans across western, northern, or central portions of Texas should keep radar handy.
Saturday brings a broader storm setup
Saturday looks more widespread in the thunderstorm department, especially across the eastern two-thirds of Texas.
The severe weather risk does not look especially high Saturday, but that does not mean storms will be harmless. Thunderstorms may produce frequent lightning, small hail, strong wind gusts, and heavy rain.
The bigger concern Saturday will be flooding.
Many areas have already picked up heavy rain over the last several days. Soils are saturated in spots, and that means it will not take as much additional rain to create new problems.
Flooding concerns increase Saturday
The flooding risk Saturday will depend heavily on where the heaviest storms set up and whether they repeat over the same locations.
Localized rain totals over five inches are possible where heavier storms sit or train. Most places will not get that much rain, but the places that do may run into flooding problems quickly.
Even areas that only pick up around an inch of rain could see new flooding issues if they have already been soaked recently.
Areas to watch include the Hill Country, Central Texas, South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and other parts of the eastern two-thirds of Texas. Urban corridors, low-water crossings, construction zones, creeks, streams, and smaller river tributaries will need attention.
This is the kind of setup where one county may be mostly fine while the next county over has roads underwater. That is why radar and local warnings matter more than broad-brush maps.
Rivers and lakes will need watching
We are also starting to move beyond just quick street flooding.
As more rain falls over saturated ground, water will continue moving into creeks, streams, and larger river tributaries. That may lead to additional rises on rivers over the next several days.
The good news is that many lakes have room to take on water. A few may need to pass water downstream, but overall, the storage situation is not the biggest issue right now.
The more immediate issue is getting water through the smaller creeks, streams, low-water crossings, and tributaries before it reaches those larger storage systems.
Fire danger is way down
One positive change: wildfire danger is low across nearly all of Texas.
That is a major shift from where we were not long ago, when parts of the Panhandle and West Texas were dealing with dangerous fire weather. The repeated rain chances and higher humidity are helping shut that problem down for now.
So yes, we are trading one problem for another. Very Texas of us.
Why the wet pattern continues
The overall pattern remains unsettled.
We do not have a big upper-level high parked overhead shutting down rain chances. Instead, we have moisture from the Gulf and Pacific, along with smaller disturbances moving through the subtropical jet stream.
That means we will continue to have daily or near-daily storm chances somewhere in Texas.
Memorial Day may bring a bit of a break for some parts of the state, but rain chances may continue in eastern Texas. Then another more widespread rain chance may return Tuesday and Wednesday as another upper-level disturbance moves overhead.
This is not a big-time tornado and giant hail pattern. It is more of a wet, unsettled pattern with daily thunderstorm chances and heavy rain concerns.
Rain totals through Wednesday
Forecast rainfall through Wednesday morning shows the potential for one to three inches of rain across the southeastern half of Texas.
Parts of Northwest Texas, North Texas, the Big Country, Permian Basin, Panhandle, and West Texas may also pick up around a half inch to an inch in spots.
As always, that is regional guidance, not a backyard guarantee.
Some folks will get little or nothing. Some folks may easily double or locally triple those totals if storms repeatedly move over the same areas.
That is where flooding becomes a problem.
Forecast rain totals through Wednesday morning show continued rain chances across Texas, with higher totals possible from South-Central Texas into Southeast and East Texas.
Temperatures stay below the blowtorch level
There is one other bit of good news.
This wet, unsettled pattern should help keep temperatures from going full-blown early-summer furnace mode for now.
We are not expecting widespread triple-digit heat anytime soon. With rain chances, cloud cover, and the current pattern, most highs should stay in the 70s, 80s, and around 90 in most cases.
That is still humid. The mosquitoes are going to love this. We will not.
But it beats widespread 100-degree heat in late May.
Bottom line
Texas has an active Memorial Day weekend weather pattern ahead.
Today, the highest severe storm risk is across the Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, the Big Country, and nearby areas. The strongest storms may produce hail up to tennis ball size and damaging winds of 70 to 80 mph. The tornado risk is very low, but not completely zero.
Saturday brings a broader storm setup across the eastern two-thirds of Texas. The severe threat does not look especially high, but heavy rain may become a bigger issue where storms repeat over saturated ground.
Localized flooding, street flooding, low-water crossings, construction zones, creeks, streams, and river rises will all need to be watched.
This is not a washout for everyone, but it is not a weekend to ignore radar either. Keep an eye on the sky, and remember: when thunder roars, get your keister indoors.
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
You can also get local forecasts, radar, alerts, forecast updates, daily Texas Weather Roundups, and live coverage in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.