A new week is here, and the Texas weather pattern is apparently not done being difficult.
We still have daily thunderstorm chances across parts of the state, and just like last week, storm placement will not be neat, tidy, or easy to nail down hours in advance. Some folks will get heavy rain. Some will miss out. A few storms may get rowdy. And where storms repeat, flooding can become an issue.
That is the main theme for the week: not a constant all-day rain everywhere, but repeated chances for storms, heavy rain, and localized flooding.
Watch the full Texas Weather Roundup video below for the latest on Memorial Day storm chances, Tuesday and Wednesday’s more active setup, and the ongoing heavy rain and flooding concerns across Texas.
Memorial Day starts mostly quiet, but storms return this afternoon
Most of Texas was fairly calm overnight into Memorial Day morning, with one exception across parts of the Hill Country, Big Country, and eastern Concho Valley.
A small mesoscale convective vortex, or MCV, helped keep storms going overnight. That is a fancy way of saying a small area of low pressure developed from previous thunderstorms and helped keep rain and storms alive longer than they otherwise might have lasted.
That feature was near the Brownwood area by early afternoon. As we go through the rest of today, the concentrated area of heavier rain should weaken, but scattered pop-up thunderstorms will become possible across parts of North Texas, Central Texas, the Hill Country, South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and East Texas.
This is more of a summertime-style storm setup than a classic spring severe weather setup.
That means storms will be hit-or-miss. Most places will not get a storm. But the storms that do develop may produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, pocket-change-size hail, localized microburst winds, and heavy rain.
If you are outdoors today, especially near lakes or open areas, do not mess around with lightning. When thunder roars, get your keister indoors.
Tuesday looks more active
Tuesday brings a more active setup as a weak upper-level disturbance moves across Texas.
Storms may develop across the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau, especially near and west of Fort Stockton. Some weather folks call that the “Fort Stocktaking” setup, where storms fire near or west of Fort Stockton and then move east with the risk of severe weather.
The strongest storms Tuesday afternoon may produce very large hail up to tennis ball size and localized damaging wind gusts over 70 mph.
There is also a low tornado risk, mainly around the Fort Stockton to Del Rio corridor, if a more organized supercell can develop. This is not a big tornado setup, but it is not completely zero either.
Tuesday night into Wednesday brings heavy rain and flooding concerns
By Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, storms may grow into a line or cluster and move east into the Concho Valley, Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains, South Texas, South Central Texas, and Central Texas.
That is when heavy rain may become the bigger issue.
Several areas have picked up rain over the last couple of weeks, so soils are more saturated than they were earlier this month. That means new heavy rain can run off more quickly and cause rapid-onset flooding.
The flash flooding risk Tuesday night into Wednesday includes parts of West Texas, the Permian Basin, Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Central Texas, South Central Texas, and the Rio Grande Plains.
This may include street flooding, construction-zone flooding, low-water crossing issues, and quick rises on creeks and streams.
By Wednesday, the heavy rain and localized flooding risk shifts toward the eastern half of Texas.
Not everyone floods, but some spots may have problems
This is not a “everyone in Texas floods” forecast.
That matters. Overstating flooding risk helps nobody.
The concern is that storms may move slowly or repeatedly over the same areas. A few spots could pick up 3 to 5 inches of rain if heavier storms train or stall. That would be enough to cause flooding issues, especially in the Hill Country, urban corridors, and areas that have already been soaked.
Other areas may get little to nothing. That is how these patterns work.
The key is staying flexible and watching radar trends instead of treating any one model run like gospel.
Storm chances continue later this week
Rain chances may continue Wednesday across the eastern half of Texas, including Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas.
Things may calm down a bit for parts of Texas later Thursday and Friday, but this pattern is not fully done. Another upper-level disturbance may move through next weekend, bringing another opportunity for showers, storms, heavy rain, and lightning Saturday, Sunday, and possibly early next week.
That does not mean it rains everywhere every day. It does mean the active pattern continues.
The Climate Prediction Center outlook continues to show above-average precipitation chances from late May into early June, including western parts of Texas that still need rain.
That is good news for drought improvement, aquifers, and areas that have been too dry. It just comes with the usual Texas catch: sometimes beneficial rain tries to become too much rain.
Severe weather risk is not the only concern
We may have severe storm issues Tuesday and Tuesday night, mainly with hail and damaging winds. A low tornado risk exists in a smaller corridor.
But the broader issue over the next several days may be flooding.
When you combine high moisture, slow-moving storms, repeated rounds of rain, and already-wetter soils, it does not take a high-end severe weather setup to create problems.
Heavy rain is enough.
If you live near low-water crossings, creeks, streams, flood-prone roads, or construction zones, you need to pay attention this week.
Lake and outdoor safety reminder
With Memorial Day outdoor plans underway, lightning and outflow winds are a real issue.
Pop-up storms can develop quickly. Even if the rain is not falling on you yet, a nearby storm can send out a gust front. Those outflow boundaries can cause sudden wind shifts and gusty winds, which can be dangerous for boaters and anyone on area lakes.
If you hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
Get indoors. Do not wait until the storm is on top of you.
Temperatures stay more reasonable
One benefit of this active pattern is that temperatures should stay more reasonable for late May and early June.
The average is still warm this time of year. We are not going back to February. But with clouds, rain chances, and the lack of a big heat dome overhead, many areas may spend more time in the 60s, 70s, and 80s instead of widespread 90s and triple digits.
For late May in Texas, we will take that.
Bottom line
Storm chances continue across Texas this week.
Today’s Memorial Day storms will be more hit-or-miss and summertime-like, with lightning, small hail, microburst winds, and heavy rain possible.
Tuesday into Wednesday looks more active. Strong to severe storms may develop near the Permian Basin, Edwards Plateau, and Fort Stockton area, with very large hail, damaging winds, and a low tornado risk.
Tuesday night into Wednesday, storms may grow into a line or cluster and move east, bringing heavy rain and flash flooding concerns to parts of Texas.
Rain chances may continue later this week, next weekend, and possibly into early next week.
Keep radar handy, especially if you have outdoor plans, live near a low-water crossing, or are in an area that has already picked up heavy rain recently.