Texas gets another organized round of storms today and tonight, and this one is already causing problems.
An upper-level storm system moving in from Mexico is helping produce a more organized area of showers and thunderstorms across West Texas and the Permian Basin. By late morning, storms were already underway from near Lubbock and the South Plains down through the Permian Basin, Fort Stockton, and Sanderson.
Flash flood warnings were already in effect across parts of the Permian Basin and Fort Stockton area, with flooding reported around Midland, Andrews, and nearby communities.
That is the start of the day. We have more storms to go. Watch the full Texas Weather Roundup video below for the latest on today’s organized storm line, flash flooding risk, severe storm potential, and the unsettled pattern continuing into the weekend.
Storms already producing flash flooding in West Texas
The first issue today is heavy rain.
Storms have already produced flooding in parts of West Texas and the Permian Basin, including reports around Midland and Andrews. Some of that rain has been falling over areas that do not need much more water in a short period of time.
As the day continues, the heavy rain and flash flooding risk will spread east. This will not be a “everyone floods everywhere” setup, but the places that get repeated storms or a slower-moving heavy band may have problems quickly.
That means street flooding, low-water crossing issues, construction-zone flooding, and quick rises on creeks and streams.
Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening
The severe storm risk this afternoon and evening is focused across parts of the southern and eastern Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and nearby areas.
That includes areas near San Angelo, Junction, Del Rio, Eagle Pass, Laredo, and surrounding communities.
The strongest storms may produce damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. Hail up to tennis ball size may occur with the strongest discrete storms before activity becomes more linear. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will also be a concern.
A tornado cannot be completely ruled out if a more discrete storm can develop and stay organized, especially around the Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley. That is a low and conditional risk, not the main story today.
The main story is storms moving west to east with heavy rain, lightning, strong winds, and some hail.
Storm line moves east through tonight
This is a more organized setup than the random pop-up storm days we have dealt with recently.
A line or cluster of storms should move from west to east across Texas this afternoon, evening, and tonight. Storms should spread from West Texas and the Permian Basin into the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country, Central Texas, South Central Texas, North Texas, and eventually parts of East Texas, Southeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and Golden Triangle late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Timing and exact placement will still shift, because this is weather and not a train schedule. But the general idea is more confidence than the past few days: storms move east through the state today and tonight.
Hill Country and Central Texas need to watch flooding risk
The Hill Country, South Central Texas, Central Texas, and areas with saturated soils will need to watch the flooding risk closely tonight.
Some areas have already picked up heavy rain over the last couple of weeks. That means soils cannot absorb as much new rainfall before runoff starts. If heavy storms move over the same area for a few hours, rapid-onset flooding may develop.
That includes street flooding, low-water crossings, quick rises on creeks and streams, and responsive river basins.
The Hill Country is always a special concern in these setups because of the terrain. Heavy rain can run off quickly, and low-water crossings can become dangerous in a hurry.
Eastern Texas gets the rain risk Wednesday
By Wednesday, the heavy rain and localized flooding risk shifts into the eastern half of Texas.
Southeast Texas, East Texas, the Brazos Valley, the Coastal Plains, the Golden Triangle, and nearby regions may have storms and heavier rain around Wednesday morning. Additional pop-up storm development may also occur Wednesday afternoon across several parts of Texas.
The severe weather risk Wednesday does not look like a big, organized tornado-and-giant-hail setup. It looks more like continued unsettled weather with heavy rain, lightning, some gusty winds, and isolated flooding where storms repeat.
Locally high rain totals are possible
One high-resolution model suggests that some areas could receive several inches of rain through tonight and Wednesday morning.
As always, do not treat that as a backyard guarantee. Models will not place every heavy band exactly right.
But the signal is there for localized heavy rain. A few spots could pick up 3 to 7 inches if storms train over the same area. That would be a problem, especially over saturated ground.
Areas to watch include parts of the Hill Country, South Central Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Coastal Plains. Other areas may receive much less.
That is the frustrating part of this kind of pattern. One town may get a flood problem while another town nearby barely gets enough to settle the dust.
Unsettled pattern continues into the weekend
After today’s more organized storm round, the weather pattern does not completely shut down.
Thursday may be a little less active for southern Texas, but storm chances may continue across parts of the Panhandle, West Texas, and northern Texas.
Going into the weekend and next week, Texas may settle into more of a summer-like pattern. That does not mean it rains every day at your house. It means daily thunderstorm chances continue somewhere in Texas, especially during the afternoon and evening.
We will also need to watch for any thunderstorm complexes trying to move south out of Oklahoma or the Panhandle. Those can sometimes change the forecast in a hurry.
Not a heat dome pattern
One reason we keep getting storm chances is that we do not have a big heat dome parked over Texas right now.
There is no strong upper-level high-pressure area shutting down storm development. Instead, we have moisture in place and enough weak disturbances moving through to keep the atmosphere unsettled.
That pattern may continue into early June.
The upside is that we are not looking at widespread triple-digit obnoxiousness right now. Temperatures should generally stay closer to the upper 70s, 80s, and lower 90s instead of widespread upper 90s and 100s.
It is still late May and early June in Texas. It will still be humid. But it could be worse.
Bottom line
Storms are already underway today across West Texas and the Permian Basin, with flash flooding reported in some areas.
Through this afternoon and tonight, a more organized line or cluster of storms will move west to east across Texas. The main threats include damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph, hail up to tennis ball size in the strongest discrete storms, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and localized flash flooding.
The Hill Country, South Central Texas, Central Texas, and areas with saturated soils need to watch for street flooding, low-water crossings, and quick rises on creeks and streams.
By Wednesday, the heavier rain and localized flooding risk shifts into the eastern half of Texas.
This is not a “panic” forecast, but it is a day to keep radar handy and pay attention to warnings. If water covers the road, do not drive through it. If thunder roars, get your keister indoors.