Active weather continues across Texas, but we are starting to move into a slightly more settled pattern compared to the last several days.
That does not mean quiet. This is still Texas in late May, and Mama Nature still has a few tricks left. We have flooding ongoing in parts of North Texas, lingering rain in Southeast Texas, a low-end tornado risk in Northeast Texas, and a continued chance for pop-up storms into the weekend.
So, no, the pattern is not done being annoying. It is just becoming a little less organized.
North Texas flooding is the main issue today
The biggest weather problem today is across eastern North Texas.
A small storm-driven area of low pressure, known as a mesoscale convective vortex or MCV, set up near the Rockwall and Forney area this morning. That helped focus very heavy rain across parts of Kaufman, Rockwall, Hunt, Collin, Fannin, Grayson, and eastern Dallas counties.
Rainfall rates have been as high as 2 inches per hour in spots. That is enough to cause street flooding, especially where rain has been falling for several hours.
Creeks, streams, and some rivers may also respond with quick rises. Even after the heaviest rain ends, high water may take time to recede.
If water covers the road, do not drive through it. That is not me being dramatic. That is basic Texas flood survival.
Southeast Texas storms have weakened
The overnight severe storms across Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains have weakened and moved offshore.
One storm complex moved off the Rio Grande Valley coast after producing a 65 mph wind gust on South Padre Island. Farther north, severe storms moved through parts of Southeast Texas and the Coastal Plains overnight into this morning.
For the rest of today, the severe storm risk has ended across the southern half of Texas.
There may still be lingering rain and embedded lightning across Southeast Texas, including toward the Houston metro, but we are not expecting a renewed significant severe weather threat there today.
Northeast Texas has a low-end tornado risk
Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex will need to be watched this afternoon.
That same small area of low pressure over eastern North Texas is increasing low-level wind shear nearby. If organized, more discrete storms develop across Northeast Texas, the ArkLaTex, southeast Oklahoma, or western Arkansas, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
This is not a big tornado outbreak setup.
It is a low-end, conditional risk tied to a small-scale feature. Those are always a little annoying because they can create localized problems even when the broader setup does not look overly impressive.
We will keep an eye on it. I would be perfectly happy if nothing happens.
Panhandle and West Texas may see isolated severe storms
Another area to watch this afternoon into early evening is the Texas Panhandle and West Texas.
Isolated storms may develop there, and a few could become strong or severe. Main threats would include hail up to golf ball size, localized damaging wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph, and perhaps a brief landspout tornado.
Landspout tornadoes form differently than the more classic mesocyclone tornadoes we talk about with supercells. They are often brief, but they can still be strong enough to cause damage if one develops in the wrong place.
Most folks in the Panhandle and West Texas will not see a storm today. But where storms do pop, they may briefly get rowdy.
Pattern starts to calm down, sort of
The next couple of days should be less active for parts of Texas, especially across the southern half of the state once the leftover rain exits Southeast Texas.
That said, “less active” does not mean “storm-free.”
Thursday and Friday may still bring pop-up showers and storms across the northern half of Texas. Any stronger storm could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and some small hail.
The overall severe weather risk looks lower than what we have dealt with recently, but we are still in a humid late-May setup. It does not take much to get afternoon storms going if a small boundary or disturbance shows up.
Why storms may keep popping up
The upper-level pattern is part of the reason we remain unsettled.
We do not have a big summer heat dome parked over Texas right now. That matters. A strong ridge of high pressure would usually bring sinking air, hotter temperatures, and fewer storm chances.
Instead, moisture remains trapped across Texas, and smaller upper-level disturbances may continue moving overhead from the eastern Pacific, Baja California, and Mexico.
That kind of pattern does not scream widespread severe weather outbreak. It does support continued pop-up storms, locally heavy rain, gusty winds, lightning, and a few stronger storms at times.
In other words, it is not “big bad severe weather every day,” but it is also not a clean, quiet forecast.
Weekend storm chances continue
Rain and storm chances may continue into the weekend and early next week.
The better storm chances may focus at times across the Panhandle, West Texas, Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Texoma, North Texas, Northeast Texas, and nearby areas. But in this kind of pattern, small features can change the forecast quickly.
If storm complexes develop in Kansas, Oklahoma, or the Panhandle, nothing is really blocking them from trying to move south into Texas.
That is one reason the forecast will remain messy. We may not know exactly where storms are most likely until we see what develops upstream.
Not a washout, but not totally quiet
This is not a washout forecast for Texas.
Some of you may have a one-in-three kind of daily rain chance and still get nothing for several days. Others may get hit repeatedly. That is the nature of this late-May, humid, pop-up thunderstorm pattern.
The good news is that we are not looking at a widespread 100-degree heat pattern right now. With clouds, rain chances, and the lack of a strong heat dome, temperatures should generally stay in the upper 70s, 80s, and lower 90s instead of widespread upper 90s and triple digits.
It will still be humid. The mosquitoes will be thrilled. We will not.
High water may linger
Even where rain has stopped, high water may continue for a while.
Low-water crossings, creeks, streams, and some rivers may remain elevated over the next several days, especially in areas that picked up repeated heavy rain.
Do not assume a road is safe just because the rain stopped an hour ago. Runoff takes time to work through the system, and water can keep rising downstream even after storms move away.
Bottom line
Texas remains active, but the pattern is becoming a little less organized.
The main issue today is flooding in parts of eastern North Texas, where very heavy rain has produced street flooding and quick rises on creeks and streams.
Northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex will need to watch for a low-end tornado risk this afternoon if more organized storms develop. The Panhandle and West Texas may also see isolated severe storms with hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief landspout.
The next few days may be calmer for parts of Texas, especially the southern half, but pop-up storm chances continue into the weekend and early June.
Keep radar handy. Keep an eye on low-water crossings. And remember, if thunder roars, get your keister indoors.