Texas is starting to shift from a springtime storm pattern into more of a summer-like setup, but that does not mean rain chances are done.
Today should be a less active day for most of Texas. A few showers continue across parts of North Texas and Northeast Texas, and a few pop-up storms may develop this afternoon. Any stronger pop-up storm could produce frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and brief localized flooding.
Friday brings a slightly better chance for isolated severe storms across parts of the Panhandle, West Texas, and the Permian Basin east of the dryline. A few storms may produce hail up to golf ball size and localized damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph or higher. The tornado threat looks very low, but not zero.
As we head into the weekend and next week, Texas does not look like it will be under a major heat dome. That means we keep moisture around and continue with a more summer-like pattern: pop-up afternoon and evening storms, hit-or-miss downpours, lots of lightning, gusty winds, and localized heavy rain.
This is not a widespread organized severe weather pattern. It is more of a “Florida-style” daily thunderstorm setup, where one town gets dumped on while another stays dry.
There is also a weak signal in some model data for a low-pressure area near the western Gulf next week. This is not a named tropical system forecast and not a hype-train situation. It is something to watch because it could increase rain chances near wherever it tracks.
In this Texas Weather Roundup:
• Quieter Texas weather today
• Pop-up storm chances in North and Northeast Texas
• Isolated severe storm risk Friday in West Texas and the Panhandle
• Hail and damaging wind potential
• Low fire danger across most of Texas
• Summer-like pattern developing next week
• Daily hit-or-miss thunderstorm chances
• Weak Gulf-area rain signal next week
• Heat index values over 105 possible in South Texas and coastal areas
• Lightning and lake safety reminders
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Chapters:
0:00 Texas pattern starts turning summer-like
0:21 Thursday Texas Weather Roundup overview
0:30 Rain ongoing in North Texas
0:50 HRRR model: quieter today, more storms Friday
1:21 Friday severe storm risk returns west
1:52 Friday severe weather outlook
2:36 Fire danger stays low for most of Texas
2:58 Upper-level pattern and why storms continue
4:00 Summer-like pop-up storms next week
5:07 European model: daily storm chances
5:38 Possible weak Gulf-area rain signal next week
6:43 Rainfall outlook through Tuesday
7:46 Unsettled pattern continues into early June
8:04 Temperatures, humidity and heat index concerns
8:43 Radar, app, lightning and lake safety
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