Texas gets a quick taste of summer this weekend
Texas is about to get a quick taste of summer, but the quieter weather will not last long.
We still have some storms to get through in western parts of Texas today, then the main story this weekend becomes heat and humidity. By next week, daily shower and thunderstorm chances return to a decent part of the state as we settle into a more summer-like pattern.
Watch today’s full Texas Weather Roundup below for the detailed breakdown.
Severe storms possible in western Texas today
The main storm concern today will be across western Texas, including parts of the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, northwest Texas, the Big Country, and nearby areas east of the dryline.
Storms should become more active this afternoon and evening as upper-level energy moves in from the southwest. The most likely timing for stronger storms will be from about 2 to 3 PM through 10 to 11 PM Central. This does not look like a late-night event, with storms expected to weaken a couple of hours after sunset.
The strongest storms may produce very large hail, localized damaging wind gusts, lightning, and heavy rain. Hail up to around tennis ball size is possible with the stronger storms. Some wind gusts could exceed 70 miles per hour in localized spots.
The tornado threat is very low. It is not zero, because this is still late May in Texas, but this does not look like a tornado-driven setup. The main problems are hail, damaging wind, lightning, and locally heavy rain.
Severe storms are possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of West Texas, the South Plains, and the Texas Panhandle.
One thing we will also watch this evening is whether any storms that quickly weaken produce strong outflow winds or a heat burst-type setup. That is not guaranteed, but it is something that can happen when decaying thunderstorms drop rain-cooled air into a hot and dry lower atmosphere.
Saturday storm chances are lower, but not zero
Saturday’s severe weather risk looks more isolated than today.
An isolated strong to severe storm may develop east of the dryline from northwest Texas into the Big Country, Concho Valley, and toward the eastern Big Bend. Most folks will not see storms on Saturday, but any storm that does form could briefly become rowdy with hail and wind before weakening.
Outside of that isolated storm chance, Saturday looks fairly quiet for much of Texas.
Isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon into early evening across parts of West Texas and Northwest Texas.
Heat becomes the bigger weekend story
The bigger statewide weather impact this weekend will be the heat.
A temporary heat dome nearby will help push temperatures well into the 90s across much of Texas, with a few low triple-digit readings possible. Because of recent rain and higher humidity, heat index values may climb close to or above 100 degrees in spots.
That means the weekend will feel hot and muggy for a good chunk of Texas. If you have outdoor plans, take the usual early-season heat precautions: drink water, take breaks, watch kids and pets closely, and do not underestimate how quickly the sun and humidity can wear you down.
Daily pop-up storm chances return next week
The weekend heat will not lock in for long.
By early next week, the pattern starts to shift back toward daily shower and thunderstorm chances. This does not look like a classic organized severe weather outbreak pattern. Instead, it looks more like a humid, summer-style setup with pop-up storms during the afternoon and evening hours.
From Tuesday through Friday, a decent part of Texas may have a 30 to 50 percent chance of seeing a shower or thunderstorm each day. That does not mean everyone gets rain every day. It does mean scattered storms will become more common again.
The usual summer-style storm hazards will apply: lightning, brief gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Some areas could pick up a quick couple inches of rain under a heavier storm, while neighborhoods a short distance away may get little or nothing.
That kind of pattern can be frustrating if you are looking for exact rain timing several days out. The better takeaway is this: next week looks more active again, but in a hit-or-miss way.
Watching moisture from the Gulf late next week
We will also keep an eye on moisture from the Gulf late next week.
Some model data continues to suggest a weak low-pressure area or deeper moisture could move toward the upper Texas coast or Louisiana late next week. Right now, this does not look like a tropical storm or hurricane setup. We are not talking about storm surge, destructive winds, or a named system threat at this point.
The more realistic impact would be higher rain chances, especially if deeper tropical moisture gets pulled into Texas. That could become more important if storms become more widespread late next week or next weekend.
As always, be careful with AI-generated weather misinformation. If there were a legitimate tropical system concern for Texas, we would be talking about it clearly and directly. Right now, this is a rain-chance signal to monitor, not a hurricane hype situation.
Bottom line
Western Texas needs to stay weather-aware today for severe storms capable of very large hail and localized damaging winds. Saturday’s storm chance is lower and more isolated.
For most of Texas, the weekend story is heat and humidity, with highs well into the 90s and heat index values near or above 100 degrees in some areas.
Next week, daily pop-up storm chances return, especially Tuesday through Friday. It will not rain everywhere every day, but locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible.
You can track storms anytime with our interactive radar at texastormchasers.com/radar and in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.