Welcome to June, Texas.
Atlantic hurricane season has officially started, but we do not have a hurricane threat to deal with this week, and probably not next week either. That is the good news.
The not-quite-as-quiet news is that rain chances are coming back.
After a hot and mostly quieter weekend for many of us, Texas is heading back into an unsettled pattern this week. This does not look like a widespread severe weather outbreak setup. It looks more like a summer-style pattern with pop-up showers and thunderstorms, plenty of moisture, lightning, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and localized flooding issues where storms sit or repeat.
In other words, we are not done with rain.
More storms return this week
The main change this week is that Texas will not be parked under a strong heat dome.
In summer, a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure usually brings hotter temperatures, sinking air, and lower rain chances. We had a little taste of that this weekend, when it got hot and most of the state stayed dry outside of western Texas.
That starts changing Tuesday and continues through much of the work week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms should become more common across a good chunk of Texas Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and into Saturday. This does not mean it rains all day at your house every day. It means the atmosphere will have enough moisture and instability for storms to bubble up, especially during the afternoon and evening.
Some activity may also linger overnight or into the following morning, depending on storm organization and leftover boundaries.
Western Texas has the better storm chance Tuesday
Tuesday’s higher-confidence storm chances are across western Texas.
That includes the Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Guadalupe Mountains, Big Bend, Trans-Pecos, Borderland, and eastern New Mexico. Scattered storms may develop and continue over some of these same areas for multiple days.
A few storms are also possible across eastern Texas Tuesday afternoon and evening if an outflow boundary moves south out of Oklahoma and Arkansas. That part of the forecast is more conditional, because it depends on thunderstorms forming to our north and pushing a boundary into Texas.
If that boundary does show up, scattered storms may develop across the eastern half of Texas as well.
Coastal areas, the Coastal Plains, and Southeast Texas may also see pop-up storms as daytime heating works on a very moist air mass.
Heavy rain and localized flooding are the bigger concerns
The biggest issue this week will not be a giant hail or tornado setup.
The bigger issue will be heavy rainfall.
Some storms may produce two to three inches of rain in under an hour. If that happens over a city, construction zone, low-water crossing, creek, stream, or area that already has wet soils, localized flooding can happen quickly.
The Weather Prediction Center highlights a risk for localized to scattered flash flooding Tuesday into Tuesday night across western parts of Texas, eastern New Mexico, the Borderland, Trans-Pecos, Guadalupe Mountains, Big Bend, Davis Mountains, Permian Basin, West Texas, and the Panhandle.
There is also some flooding risk farther east, but western Texas is the area to watch more closely Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the excessive rain and flooding risk continues across the Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, Borderland, Big Bend, Davis Mountains, northern Edwards Plateau, Concho Valley, Big Country, Northwest Texas, western Texoma, and western Hill Country.
That does not mean everyone floods. It means the places that end up under the heavier storms may have issues.
Rainfall maps will not tell the whole story
Forecast rainfall maps may not look overly dramatic for every part of Texas this week.
Do not let that fool you.
With pop-up storms, rainfall totals can vary wildly over short distances. One town may get a tenth of an inch. Another nearby town may get two inches in 45 minutes.
That is how summer-style storm setups work.
Widespread rain totals may average under an inch in many areas, but localized heavier storms could easily produce one to three inches in a short time. Western Texas, the Panhandle, eastern New Mexico, the Big Bend, and the Permian Basin may pick up beneficial rainfall this week, which is good news after a rough, dry stretch earlier this spring.
We just do not want too much rain falling too quickly in the same places.
No major severe weather outbreak expected
This week does not look like a classic widespread severe weather pattern.
The main upper-level jet stream remains well north of Texas. We do not have the kind of strong upper-level wind support that usually helps produce more organized severe weather outbreaks.
That said, it is June in Texas. Storms that form in a hot, humid air mass can still pack a punch.
A few storms may produce gusty winds, small hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and torrential rain. The strongest storms may briefly become severe, especially where storms grow quickly in the afternoon heat.
But the overall message is not “major severe weather outbreak.” The message is “unsettled, humid, pop-up storm pattern with localized flooding risk.”
Later this week and the weekend
Rain and storm chances should continue Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and into Saturday across a large part of Texas.
The exact location of storms each day will depend on small boundaries, daytime heating, leftover storm outflows, and how much cloud cover hangs around. That makes pinpoint timing difficult more than a day or so out.
This is not the kind of setup where we can honestly say storms will hit one specific town at one specific time several days in advance.
Instead, keep the broader pattern in mind: daily chances for scattered pop-up storms, especially during the afternoon and evening, with localized heavy rain and lightning possible.
By next week, there are hints that ridging may try to build near the Gulf, which could push Texas toward a hotter and somewhat drier pattern. We will see if that actually happens. For this week, though, moisture stays in place and storm chances continue.
Temperatures stay humid and summer-like
Today will be pretty toasty across Texas.
As rain chances increase Tuesday through Friday, temperatures may be a little less hot in areas that see clouds and storms. But do not mistake “less hot” for comfortable.
If it is not raining where you are, highs will still likely climb into the upper 80s and 90s. Humidity will be high, and that means it will feel muggy and summer-like.
Heat index values may run several degrees above the actual air temperature. So even with rain chances around, it will still feel like June.
Lightning and flooding safety
Pop-up storms can become dangerous quickly, especially for folks outdoors.
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning will be a concern with storms this week. If you hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Get indoors.
If you are on area lakes, watch for nearby storms and outflow boundaries. Even storms several miles away can send out sudden gusty winds and abrupt wind shifts that can cause problems on the water.
Heavy rain may also cause quick rises on creeks, streams, low-water crossings, and typical trouble spots. Construction zones can flood quickly too.
If water covers the road, do not drive through it. That remains one of the fastest ways to turn a normal storm day into a rescue situation.
Bottom line
June is starting with no hurricane threat for Texas, but rain chances are coming back.
Scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms are expected across Texas this week, especially Tuesday through Saturday. Western Texas has the higher-confidence storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday, while additional storms may develop elsewhere depending on boundaries and daytime heating.
The main threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, heavy rain, and localized flooding. Some storms may produce two to three inches of rain in under an hour, which could cause street flooding, low-water crossing issues, and quick rises on creeks and streams.
This is not a widespread severe weather outbreak setup. It is a humid, unsettled, early-June Texas pattern.
Keep radar handy, keep an eye on the sky, and when thunder roars, get your keister indoors.
Track storms anytime with the Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar.
You can also get local forecasts, radar, alerts, daily Texas Weather Roundups, and live coverage in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.