Tropical downpours are the main weather story across Texas for the next few days.
At the lunchtime hour Thursday, radar was already lighting up across the eastern half of the state. Showers and storms were bubbling up in the afternoon heat, with the highest coverage across East Texas, the Piney Woods, the ArkLaTex, Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, and parts of the Brazos Valley, North Texas, Central Texas, and eastern Hill Country.
Farther west, showers and storms were also developing across parts of the eastern Panhandle, Concho Valley, Big Bend, and western Texas.
This is a very summer-like pattern. We do not have a strong upper-level high or heat dome sitting directly over Texas right now. Without that sinking air overhead, afternoon heating plus deep tropical moisture is enough to pop showers and storms across a good chunk of the state.
Heavy downpours continue through Saturday
Rain chances will remain elevated through Friday and Saturday.
Scattered to locally numerous showers and storms will be possible across Texas, especially during the afternoon and early evening. Some activity may also continue overnight in spots, especially where storms become a little more organized.
The strongest downpours may produce:
- Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
- Gusty winds
- Very heavy rain
- Isolated flash flooding
- Quick rises on creeks and streams
- High water in low-lying and poor-drainage areas
This does not look like a widespread flooding setup. That is important. We are not expecting everyone to flood.
However, any stronger downpour may drop a couple inches of rain quickly. That can cause localized street flooding, especially in poor-drainage areas, construction zones, low-water crossings, and spots where creeks and streams respond quickly.
Isolated flash flooding risk each day
The Weather Prediction Center has a low-end flash flood risk across a good chunk of Texas today, Friday, and Saturday.
That means isolated flash flooding will be possible where heavier storms sit or repeat. The risk will not be uniform. One town may get dumped on while another nearby town gets very little.
That is how these tropical downpour setups work.
If a heavier storm parks over your area, water can rise quickly. Give yourself extra time if you are driving through heavy rain, and never drive through water covering the road.
Why rain chances are still around
A small upper-level disturbance will move across Texas Friday and Saturday, helping keep rain chances on the higher side.
This is not a big, organized severe-weather setup. We are not looking at a classic outbreak pattern with widespread tornadoes or giant hail. The main upper-level jet stream remains well north of Texas.
Instead, the issue is tropical moisture, daytime heating, and just enough upper-level support to keep showers and storms going.
By Sunday, we may still have scattered showers and storms, especially across the eastern half of Texas. Rain chances should not disappear all at once, but they should begin trending downward after the weekend.
Hotter and drier pattern starts building next week
Next week looks different.
An upper-level ridge, or area of high pressure, should begin building close enough to Texas to increase sinking air and reduce rain chances. That means a more typical summer pattern starts taking over.
Rain chances probably will not shut off completely, but they should become more isolated and sparse compared to what we are dealing with this week.
The tradeoff is obvious: fewer storms, hotter temperatures.
By Monday, parts of the Panhandle, Far West Texas, and the Big Bend may climb into the triple digits. Amarillo, Childress, Van Horn, El Paso, and Presidio may all flirt with or exceed 100 degrees. Much of the rest of Texas should be in the 90s.
The eastern half of Texas will still have plenty of humidity, so feels-like temperatures may run around 10 degrees above the actual air temperature.
Welcome to summer, everyone.
No tropical cyclone mischief expected
Since Atlantic hurricane season is underway, we will keep watching the tropics.
For now, there is no tropical cyclone mischief expected across the Atlantic Basin, the Gulf, or Caribbean over the next several days.
There are a couple of systems in the eastern Pacific, but those are not direct threats to Texas. Sometimes eastern Pacific systems can send moisture toward Texas if they get close enough to Baja California or Mexico, so we will keep an eye on that side of the world too.
For now, the Texas forecast is driven by tropical moisture, afternoon heating, and weak upper-level disturbances — not a tropical cyclone.
Temperature trends
Clouds and rain chances will keep temperatures somewhat lower than they otherwise could be through Saturday.
Today’s highs will mostly be in the 80s, with a few low 90s possible. Friday looks similar for much of Texas, though the Panhandle will warm into the 90s. Some areas with heavier rain or clouds, especially in the Big Bend and nearby regions, may stay in the 70s.
Saturday remains warm and humid, with highs mostly in the 80s and low to mid-90s. The Rio Grande Plains, southern Big Bend, and Edwards Plateau may be a bit hotter.
Sunday is when the warm-up becomes more noticeable. Highs climb into the 90s for more of Texas, with upper 90s possible in Far West Texas.
By Monday, triple-digit heat may show up in parts of the Panhandle, Far West Texas, and Big Bend, while the rest of Texas deals with 90s and humid feels-like temperatures.
Bottom line
Tropical downpours will continue across Texas today, Friday, and Saturday.
The main concerns are heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and isolated flash flooding where stronger downpours develop. Widespread flooding is not expected, but a couple inches of rain in a short time can still cause localized problems.
Rain chances should begin decreasing next week as a hotter and somewhat drier summer pattern builds back in. Some areas may hit the triple digits by Monday, and much of the eastern half of Texas will feel hotter than the actual temperature thanks to humidity.
No tropical cyclone mischief is expected across the Atlantic Basin, the Gulf, or Caribbean over the next several days.
Keep an eye on radar through Saturday, and if thunder roars, get your keister indoors.
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