Texas gets one more stormy weekend before the summer heat dome starts trying to set up shop.
We are still dealing with plenty of moisture, daytime heating, and an upper-level low approaching from the west. That means showers and thunderstorms will keep popping up today, tonight, Saturday, Saturday night, and in some areas into Sunday morning.
This is not a clean, easy forecast where we can tell you a storm hits a specific town at 5:06 PM. That is not how this setup works.
This is a messy, summer-style, pop-up storm pattern with enough upper-level help that some storms may keep going after sunset. That matters because storms that linger overnight or repeatedly move over the same areas can dump a lot of rain in a short time.
That is where flooding concerns come in.
Storm chances today and tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across a large part of Texas today and this evening.
The highest rain chances favor the southeastern two-thirds of the state. That includes parts of the Big Country, Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Central Texas, South Texas, North Texas, Texoma, Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas.
The northwestern Panhandle has the lowest rain chances today, but most other areas have at least some chance of seeing a shower or storm.
Not everyone gets rain. That is the frustrating part. But if a storm finds your neighborhood, it may produce heavy rain, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and brief flooding in poor-drainage areas.
Saturday looks more active
Saturday is the day to watch more closely.
Rain and storm chances increase across the northeastern two-thirds of Texas. That includes the Big Country, Concho Valley, eastern Panhandle, West Texas, eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, Southeast Texas, North Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms may develop during the day, then some activity may continue into Saturday night.
If you have outdoor plans Saturday, have an indoor backup. That does not mean your whole day is ruined. It does mean you need a plan if lightning or heavy rain shows up.
When thunder roars, get your keister indoors.
Flooding is the main concern
The biggest issue this weekend is not a classic giant-hail or tornado setup.
The bigger problem is heavy rain.
Some storms may move slowly. Others may develop repeatedly over the same areas. If that happens, a few spots could receive several inches of rain in a short period of time.
A localized 5 to 8 inches of rain is possible where storms train overnight or repeatedly redevelop. That is not expected everywhere. Most folks will not see that kind of total. But the spots that do could end up with flooding problems quickly.
Watch for:
- Street flooding
- Low-water crossing issues
- High water in construction zones
- Quick rises on creeks and streams
- Poor-drainage flooding
- Later rises on some rivers
The flash flooding risk today and tonight includes a broad area from Texoma and North Texas through the Permian Basin, Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Central Texas, South Texas, Brazos Valley, Big Country, and Concho Valley.
On Saturday, the more focused flooding concern may shift toward the Concho Valley, Big Country, North Texas, and nearby areas, though any slow-moving heavy storm can cause localized flooding just about anywhere in this juicy air mass.
A few severe storms are possible Saturday
We may also have a few isolated severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening.
The main severe threats would be hail up to around quarter size and localized damaging wind gusts over 60 mph. The risk area includes parts of the northern and western Edwards Plateau, eastern Big Bend, Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Big Country, Texoma, and North Texas.
This does not look like a widespread severe weather outbreak.
It is the kind of setup where a handful of storms may briefly get rowdy while most of the broader concern stays focused on heavy rain and lightning.
Every storm this weekend can produce dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. That is the threat that does not get enough respect, especially this time of year when folks are outside, on lakes, at ballfields, grilling, or trying to get weekend plans done.
Sunday starts drying out west
By Sunday, western Texas should begin drying out.
Rain and storm chances may continue one more day across North Texas and Northeast Texas, including parts of Texoma and the ArkLaTex. After that, the pattern starts changing.
We are not shutting rain chances off completely next week, but we are going to knock them down.
That means fewer storms for many areas, but it also means fewer clouds and less rain-cooled air.
You know where this is going.
Heat dome builds next week
An upper-level ridge, or heat dome, starts building close enough to Texas next week to bring more sinking air. That helps reduce rain chances and lets temperatures climb.
It does not look like the strongest heat dome we have ever seen, but it will be enough to make Texas feel much more like summer.
The main storm track lifts well to our north, while Texas starts warming up.
By Sunday, 90s return for more of the state, and some triple digits show up in the Big Bend and Far West Texas.
By Monday, triple-digit temperatures are likely in parts of the Panhandle, Far West Texas, and Big Bend. Amarillo, Pampa, Childress, El Paso, and Presidio may all flirt with or reach 100 degrees or hotter.
The eastern half of Texas may not all hit 100, but it will still feel gross. Humidity will remain high, and heat index values may easily run near or above 100 degrees.
So yes, fewer storms next week. But the tradeoff is heat and humidity.
Welcome to summer.
Temperatures this weekend into early next week
Today’s highs will mostly be in the 80s across Texas thanks to clouds and rain chances, with some 90s in the Panhandle.
Saturday will be warm and humid. Highs will be mostly in the 80s, with 90s in the Rio Grande Plains, Edwards Plateau, Big Bend, and Trans-Pecos.
Sunday is when the warm-up becomes more obvious. More 90s return across Texas, with triple digits possible in the southern Big Bend. Even areas that stay in the upper 80s will feel hotter because of the humidity.
Monday is the real “oh yeah, it is summer now” day. Much of Texas climbs into the 90s, with triple digits in parts of the Panhandle, Far West Texas, and Big Bend. The eastern half of Texas will have humidity pushing feels-like values near or above 100 degrees.
Overnight lows will also become warmer. By early next week, many areas in the eastern half of Texas may only drop into the upper 70s or lower 80s. That means less overnight relief.
Bottom line
Texas has a stormy weekend ahead before hotter summer weather builds next week.
Today and Saturday bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may continue into the overnight hours thanks to an upper-level low approaching from the west.
The main concern is localized flooding where slow-moving storms repeat over the same areas. A few spots could receive several inches of rain quickly, especially tonight or Saturday night.
A few isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening with quarter-size hail and damaging wind gusts over 60 mph, but this is not a widespread severe weather outbreak.
By Sunday and especially Monday into Tuesday, rain chances start dropping and the heat dome begins building. Triple digits return for parts of Texas, and humidity will make it feel near or above 100 degrees across much of the eastern half of the state.
Keep an eye on radar this weekend. Have an indoor backup for outdoor plans. If thunder roars, go indoors. If you come across water over the road, turn around. Do not flood out your car trying to save five minutes.