It may not officially be summer on the calendar yet, but Texas is about to act like it.
After several weeks of repeated rain and storms, most of the state is shifting into a drier, hotter, and much more humid pattern this week. That does not mean every rain chance is gone. We still have a few pop-up showers and storms on the board, especially today in parts of Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, South Texas, and Southeast Texas.
But compared to last week? This is a much different setup.
Most of Texas will stay dry over the next several days, and temperatures are going to climb. The humidity will not be taking a vacation either, so the feels-like temperatures are going to be obnoxious in the eastern half of the state.
Welcome to Mama Nature’s introduction to Summer 2026.
Spotty storms today, but most stay dry
We have a few bubbly pop-up showers and storms trying to get going today across parts of Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, South Texas, and Southeast Texas.
These are not expected to be widespread or organized like what we dealt with last week. Most folks will stay dry. The storms that do develop may produce lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds, but this is not a big statewide storm day.
Farther north, we are watching the Texas Panhandle for a low-end severe storm risk.
Panhandle severe storm risk
An isolated severe storm or two may develop today across the eastern Texas Panhandle.
That includes areas near Canadian, Perryton, Shamrock, McLean, Turkey, and areas west of Childress, mostly east of Interstate 27.
The main threats would be localized damaging wind gusts and pocket-change-size hail. This is not a widespread severe weather outbreak. It is a “one or two storms could get rowdy” setup.
On Tuesday, the northwestern Panhandle may sit on the southern end of a more active severe weather day across the Plains. The Texas risk looks limited, but a storm could produce localized damaging winds near places like Stratford, Dalhart, and up toward the Oklahoma Panhandle and southeastern Colorado.
Fire danger returns to the Panhandle and West Texas
We are also back to talking about fire danger.
After a nice break from the wildfire concern thanks to recent rain, moderate to high fire danger returns today and Tuesday across parts of the Texas Panhandle and West Texas. By Wednesday, very high fire danger may return to the Texas Panhandle.
The concern is highest where recent rainfall was lighter over the last 10 to 14 days.
We may also have thunderstorms in the mix at times, and that means lightning-induced grass fires will need to be watched. It only takes one lightning strike in the wrong spot with dry fuels and gusty winds to create problems.
This is not a return to the worst fire weather we had earlier this spring, but it is a risk worth paying attention to again.
Heat dome starts reducing rain chances
The reason our rain chances are dropping is pretty simple: an upper-level ridge, or weak heat dome, is building over Texas.
This is not the strongest heat dome we can get in summer. We are not talking about the full-blown “everything is 107 and the sidewalk is angry” version yet.
But it is strong enough to reduce storm coverage, add more sinking air, and push temperatures higher.
Because we had so much rain over the last few weeks, the soil moisture is still high in many areas. That moisture does not just vanish overnight. As we heat up, that moisture helps keep humidity levels high.
So the air temperature may be in the 90s, but the heat index may run 10 to 20 degrees hotter in some spots.
That is the kind of humidity that makes you question your life choices after walking from the front door to the mailbox.
Triple digits return out west
Triple-digit temperatures are back across western Texas and the Panhandle this week.
Today, highs may reach around 100 degrees in El Paso, Lubbock, and Dalhart, with around 102 in Amarillo and 107 in Presidio.
The eastern half of Texas will not be as hot on the thermometer today, but it will feel plenty hot thanks to humidity. Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, Waco, Laredo, McAllen, Houston, Beaumont, and Texarkana will all deal with that warm and muggy air mass.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, more of western Texas and the Panhandle will continue flirting with or reaching triple digits.
Wednesday looks especially toasty out west, with around 104 possible in Amarillo and El Paso, and 100-plus possible in Lubbock, Van Horn, and Fort Stockton.
Heat index values become the real issue east
For the eastern half of Texas, the actual air temperature is only part of the story.
Humidity will be the problem.
Heat index values may reach 100 to 108 degrees later this week across parts of the eastern half of Texas. That includes areas where the actual high temperature may “only” be in the lower to middle 90s.
The body does not care that the thermometer says 93 if the humidity makes it feel like 105.
That means you need to take the heat seriously, especially if you work outside, have outdoor practices, are doing yard work, or are spending time away from air conditioning.
Take breaks. Drink water. Check on folks who may struggle with heat. Do not wait until you feel bad to slow down.
Warm nights mean less relief
The overnight temperatures are also warming up.
Across the eastern two-thirds of Texas, lows will mostly stay in the mid to upper 70s this week. Some coastal areas may only drop near 80 degrees.
That matters because warm nights reduce the body’s chance to recover from daytime heat. Once we start stacking hot afternoons and muggy nights together, heat stress becomes more of a concern.
By Wednesday night and Thursday morning, some parts of Northeast Texas may not even drop below 80 degrees.
Gross? Yes.
Surprising for Texas in June? Not really.
Rain chances may try to return this weekend
Rain chances stay fairly limited through much of the work week, but we may see a bit of a pattern change by the weekend or early next week.
The upper-level jet stream may try to dip a little farther south, and we will need to watch for thunderstorm complexes developing across Colorado, Kansas, or Oklahoma. If those complexes form, they may try to move south into parts of northern Texas.
That could bring back some rain chances, stronger storms, and gusty winds for parts of the state, especially the northern half.
Confidence is not high enough yet to get cute with exact timing or locations. This is something to watch, not something to overpromise.
Eastern Pacific moisture is worth watching
There are a few tropical areas of interest in the eastern Pacific, but none of them are direct threats to Texas.
Still, when systems get close enough to Baja California or western Mexico, we sometimes have to watch for moisture being pulled toward Texas. That can bump up rain chances, especially if the upper-level pattern cooperates.
There is nothing in the Gulf right now that warrants concern.
So no, this is not a tropical mischief forecast for Texas. It is just early June, and we are starting to watch the usual moisture sources that can matter later in the warm season.
Bottom line
Texas is shifting into a hotter and more humid pattern this week.
Most of the state will be drier compared to last week, though a few pop-up storms are still possible. The Texas Panhandle may see an isolated severe storm or two today and Tuesday, with localized damaging winds and small hail possible.
Fire danger returns to parts of the Panhandle and West Texas, especially where recent rain was limited. Lightning-induced grass fires will need to be watched where storms develop over drier areas.
The bigger statewide issue is heat and humidity. Triple digits return across western Texas and the Panhandle, while the eastern half of Texas deals with heat index values near or above 100 degrees later this week.
Rain chances may try to increase again by the weekend, especially across northern Texas, but for now, this week’s main message is simple:
Summer has arrived. Stay hydrated, take it easy during the hottest part of the day, and when thunder roars, get your keister indoors.