Texas is not done with summer heat yet, but we are about to get a pattern change.
For the next few days, the forecast is still plenty hot and humid. Heat index values were already near or above 100 degrees late this morning in parts of Southeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, South Texas, and the Rio Grande Valley. College Station, Houston, Victoria, and McAllen were already feeling the humidity before lunchtime, and we are not exactly expecting a refreshing mountain breeze to show up this afternoon.
The western half of Texas is a little less humid, but that just means actual air temperatures can get hotter. Triple digits remain on the board today across the Panhandle, West Texas, Far West Texas, and the Big Bend.
So yes, summer is still summering.
But the more important change arrives this weekend into early next week. Moisture from the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Christina will move across Mexico and eventually help feed more moisture northward toward Texas. At the same time, a weak June front will slide south and likely stall somewhere over the state.
That combination matters.
Moisture gives storms fuel. The front gives storms a spark. Put those together in June, and you can get multiple rounds of showers and storms.
Heat and humidity continue first
Before we get to the wetter setup, we still have a few hot and humid days to get through.
Today’s high temperatures will climb into the 90s across much of Texas, with triple digits in the Panhandle, West Texas, Far West Texas, and the Big Bend. Amarillo, Pampa, Borger, El Paso, Fort Stockton, and Presidio are all in the “toasty to obnoxious” category.
Across the eastern half of Texas, actual temperatures may be a bit lower, but the humidity is the problem. Heat index values will run about 10 to 15 degrees hotter than the air temperature in many spots. That means a 93-degree day can feel closer to 103.
That is not fun weather. That is “walk outside and immediately regret having pores” weather.
Tonight will not offer much relief for the eastern two-thirds of Texas. Morning lows Thursday will mostly be in the mid to upper 70s, with low 80s along the coast. A few cooler readings in the 60s will be possible in the Davis Mountains and the northwestern Panhandle, but most of Texas stays warm and muggy.
A few rowdy storms possible in West Texas and the Panhandle
While most of Texas deals with heat and humidity today, we will also watch for a few strong to severe storms across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle.
Storm coverage may be limited. We may not see many storms fire up at all. But any storm that does develop in that hot environment could get rowdy quickly.
The main threats today and again Thursday include:
- Localized damaging wind gusts over 70 mph
- Pocket-change-size hail
- Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
- Locally heavy rain
- A few lightning-started grass fires where fuels remain dry
Very warm temperatures may limit the hail threat somewhat, but damaging wind gusts are still a concern. Storms in this type of setup can transport strong winds down to the surface in a hurry.
Thursday’s severe storm risk may increase a bit across the eastern Panhandle and northwest Texas. That risk is part of a much larger severe weather setup extending north through Oklahoma and into the Midwest, but the Texas piece of it still matters.
Fire danger remains elevated in the Panhandle
Fire danger also remains a concern across parts of the Texas Panhandle.
The Texas A&M Forest Service fire danger forecast continues to show high to very high fire danger across portions of the Panhandle today and Thursday. That threat should begin to ease some by Friday, but it does not disappear immediately.
The added wrinkle is lightning. If storms develop over areas with drier fuels, lightning may spark a few grass fires. That does not mean every storm becomes a fire problem, but it is something we need to watch.
Fire danger remains low across most of Texas through Friday, with higher fire danger possible at times in parts of the Texas Panhandle.
Tropical moisture heads toward Texas
Now let’s talk about the weekend and early next week.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a low-end area of possible tropical mischief in the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf this weekend into early next week. That will be tied to the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Christina moving inland across Mexico.
Right now, this does not look like it will regenerate into an organized named system in the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf.
That is important. We are not hyping a tropical system hitting Texas.
The Texas impact looks more like this: Christina’s remnants help send deeper moisture northward into the state. That extra moisture arrives just as a weak June front moves south and stalls.
That front will act as a lifting mechanism. In plain English, it gives the atmosphere a reason to turn all that moisture into showers and storms.
Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week
Rain chances should begin increasing Friday and Saturday, especially across northern Texas. The more active period looks to kick in Sunday and continue into Monday, Tuesday, and possibly part of Wednesday.
The setup favors multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The front will slowly move south, and tropical moisture will be in place. That means storms may develop in waves instead of one clean line moving through and ending the story.
The best early rain chances through Sunday night appear to favor North Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, and the northern half of the state. Rain chances should spread farther south Monday and Tuesday as the boundary sags into more of Texas.
The Weather Prediction Center’s rainfall forecast through 7 AM Monday already shows the potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain across parts of North Texas, Texoma, and Northeast Texas. Many areas across the northern half of Texas may pick up at least a half inch by then.
That forecast does not include all of Monday and Tuesday’s rain chances, so totals may become more colorful on future outlooks.
Five-day rainfall forecast through Monday morning shows the highest totals across North Texas, East Texas, and parts of the Trans-Pecos.
Heavy rain and localized flooding will need watching
A lot of this rain could be beneficial. We have lakes, yards, ranches, and farms that can use rain, especially if it falls at a reasonable pace.
The problem is that storms rarely ask politely before dumping rain.
If multiple rounds of storms move over the same area, localized flooding may become an issue. That will be especially true Sunday through Tuesday, when deeper tropical moisture and the stalled boundary overlap.
The main concerns this weekend into early next week will be:
- Heavy rain
- Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
- Gusty winds
- Pocket-change-size hail
- Localized flooding
- Ponding on roads
- Quick rises near creeks, streams, and poor-drainage areas
This does not currently look like a statewide flooding event. It does look like a setup where some areas may get several rounds of rain while others get less. That is how these summer boundary-plus-moisture setups tend to behave.
Bottom line: rain chances are going up, but the details will depend on where the front stalls and where repeated storms set up.
Temperatures ease a bit behind the front
We are not getting a true fall-style cold front. It is June in Texas. Let’s not get carried away.
But the boundary should be enough to knock the worst triple-digit heat down a bit across parts of the Panhandle and eventually portions of northern Texas.
Friday morning may actually feel pretty nice in the northwestern Panhandle, with lows in the 50s around Dalhart. Meanwhile, Dallas-Fort Worth may only drop to around 80. That tells you everything you need to know about how uneven this “cool front” will be.
By Friday afternoon, highs in the Panhandle should fall about 10 degrees compared to the hottest days this week, mostly into the lower 90s. The rest of Texas will stay in the 90s to triple digits, with humidity making it feel hotter.
Saturday still looks hot for much of Texas. Dallas-Fort Worth may flirt with its first 100-degree reading of the year, while Abilene, San Angelo, Big Spring, Childress, Pampa, and El Paso also hover near or above triple digits.
Sunday is when the more noticeable changes begin in the Panhandle, with highs potentially only around 80 in Dalhart and mid-80s in Amarillo. Farther south and east, it will still be warm and humid, but increasing clouds and rain chances should eventually help take the edge off the heat.
Sunday’s forecast high temperatures show widespread 90s across Texas, with triple-digit heat possible in parts of West Texas.
The active pattern may last into next week
The Climate Prediction Center outlook for June 15 through 19 does not show a blazing-hot doom ridge parked over all of Texas. Instead, above-average precipitation chances are expected across much of the state.
That fits the idea of an active storm pattern continuing into early next week.
The heat dome gets shoved south of Texas for a bit. The jet stream dips far enough south to help send a boundary into the state. Tropical moisture increases. That is a pretty clear signal that Mama Nature is not done throwing rain and storms at Texas just yet.
We will need to watch for updates over the next few days because the exact placement of the heaviest rain axis will matter. A 50-mile shift in where the boundary stalls can make a big difference in who gets useful rain versus who gets too much too fast.
Bottom line
Texas stays hot and humid for a few more days, but rain chances are about to increase.
Today and Thursday, the main storm concern is across West Texas and the Panhandle, where a few strong to severe storms may produce damaging wind gusts over 70 mph, pocket-change-size hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain. Fire danger also remains elevated in parts of the Panhandle, and lightning could start a few grass fires.
This weekend into early next week, the setup changes. Moisture from the remnants of eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Christina will move toward Texas, while a weak June front slides south and stalls over the state.
That should bring multiple rounds of showers and storms from Sunday into Monday, Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday. Heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized flooding will all be possible.
This is not a tropical system hitting Texas. This is tropical moisture plus a weak front giving us a wetter and more active pattern.
Keep an eye on the forecast, especially if you have weekend or early-week outdoor plans. Have a way to check radar. If thunder roars, get your keister indoors. If water covers the road, turn around. Do not turn your vehicle into a submarine.