Texas July 4 Forecast: Panhandle Severe Storm Risk

Written on 07/04/2026
David Reimer

Happy Fourth of July, Texas. Most of the state will be hot and mostly dry today, but we do have storm chances to watch this afternoon and evening.

The main severe storm risk is across the Texas Panhandle, where the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the area to a Level 2 out of 5 risk for scattered severe thunderstorms.

Storms may develop after about 3 PM and continue through the evening, possibly as late as 10 or 11 PM. That could impact some outdoor plans and fireworks events in the Panhandle.

The strongest storms may produce:
• Localized damaging wind gusts over 70 MPH
• Large to very large hail
• Dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning
• Heavy rain
• Gusty outflow winds

West Texas may also see storms this afternoon and evening, with hail, strong winds, heavy rain, and lightning possible.

A few pop-up storms cannot be ruled out across North Texas, East Texas, and the ArkLaTex, but most of that activity should be winding down by sunset or shortly after.

We will also keep an eye on Oklahoma tonight. If a complex of storms organizes there, it may try to make a run toward the Red River Sunday morning.

Outside of the storm zones, most of Texas stays hot and dry today. Triple digits are expected along and west of Interstate 35 across the western half to western two-thirds of Texas. The eastern half of the state will mostly be in the mid to upper 90s, with heat index values closer to 100.

By fireworks time tonight, temperatures will still be in the upper 80s and 90s across much of Texas.

Bottom line: most Texans will deal with heat today, but the Panhandle has the main severe storm risk. If you hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck. When thunder roars, get your keister indoors.

Track storms anytime:
TexasStormChasers.com/radar

You can also get radar, local forecasts, alerts, and more in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.

#TexasWeather #July4th