Summer heat sticks around for the next couple of days, but Texas is heading into a stormier pattern this weekend into next week.
In this Thursday edition of the Texas Weather Roundup, we look at Panhandle storm chances today and Friday, increasing rain chances along the Texas coast, and a more unsettled pattern that may bring scattered storms to a decent chunk of Texas next week.
For most of Texas, today and Friday will not be especially active. The main exception is the Texas Panhandle.
This afternoon and evening, isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Texas Panhandle, roughly from Dalhart and Dumas toward Canadian and points north. The strongest storms may produce:
• Damaging wind gusts over 70 mph
• Quarter-size hail
• Frequent lightning
• Locally heavy rain
The tornado risk is minimal.
On Friday, the storm risk in the Panhandle expands a little farther south toward Interstate 40, including areas near Vega, Amarillo, McLean, Shamrock, and the northern Texas Panhandle. The main risks Friday will again be damaging wind and hail.
Most of Texas stays hot and mostly dry today under the influence of upper-level high pressure. That keeps rain chances low and temperatures up, with many areas in the upper 90s to low 100s.
By Friday, the heat dome begins shifting north. That allows moisture to increase near the Texas coast, with scattered sea-breeze showers and storms becoming possible. Those storms may produce lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds.
The bigger change arrives this weekend into next week.
As the heat dome shifts toward the Northern Plains and Great Lakes, Texas should have less sinking air overhead. That may allow scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms to become more common across the state.
This does not mean every day will be a washout. This looks more like a summer pop-up storm pattern. Some places may get heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds, while others nearby stay dry.
Localized rainfall totals over two inches will be possible through the weekend and early next week, especially where heavier storms sit over the same area. Some folks may get that much rain in 30 minutes under a stronger storm.
We will also watch for localized flooding:
• Today in the northern Texas Panhandle
• Sunday in Northeast Texas
• Monday in Southeast Texas and the Golden Triangle
Forecast details will change, but the overall pattern looks more unsettled next week with above-average rain chances continuing into mid-July.
Temperatures will stay hot through Friday, with upper 90s to low 100s common. As cloud cover and rain chances increase this weekend into next week, highs may drop back into the 80s and low 90s in some areas. That is still summer, but at least it is not 110.
Bottom line: hot and mostly dry for many today and Friday, with Panhandle storms to watch. Then rain chances increase this weekend into next week, with scattered storms, lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flooding possible.
When thunder roars, get your keister indoors.
Get the latest in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app, and find us online at:
TSCWX.com
TexasStormChasers.com
Chapters
0:00 Summer heat now, stormier pattern ahead
0:23 Thursday Texas Weather Roundup
0:40 Storm chances over the next few days
1:00 Northern Panhandle severe storm risk today
1:19 Damaging wind and hail threat
1:32 Friday Panhandle storm risk expands
1:49 HRRR storm timeline today and Friday
2:17 Coast rain chances increase Friday
2:51 Upper-air pattern shift
3:17 More moisture and less sinking air over Texas
3:38 Weekend and next week storm chances
3:57 European model precipitation outlook
4:36 Rain totals through Tuesday
5:15 Localized flooding potential
5:53 Hot, dry and grass fire danger today
6:00 Texas temperatures today and Friday
7:12 Weekend temperatures and rain chances
7:57 Monday temperatures trend lower
8:40 Long-range outlook: heat north, rain chances here
9:26 Forecast summary
9:51 Final thoughts and sign-off
#TexasWeather #TexasStorms