Fri-yay is here in Texas, and so are returning storm chances.
In this Friday edition of the Texas Weather Roundup, we look at increasing rain and storm chances today, this weekend, and into early next week.
The upper-level heat dome is shifting north into the Northern Plains and northern United States. That means dangerous heat builds well north of Texas, but here at home, the pattern becomes more favorable for moisture, humidity, and daily thunderstorm chances.
Today, scattered showers and storms are possible near the Texas coast. The sea breeze may push some of that activity inland toward the eastern Hill Country, Brazos Valley, South-Central Texas, and East Texas before storms weaken later today.
This afternoon and evening, the Texas Panhandle will need to watch for isolated to scattered storms. Because it will be hot and relatively dry in the lower levels, storms there may produce:
• Damaging wind gusts
• Blowing dust
• Frequent lightning
• Some hail
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the northern Texas Panhandle for scattered severe storms today, generally from about 2–3 PM through around 11 PM. Damaging winds of 60 to 75 mph are possible, especially near Dalhart, Dumas, and nearby areas. The tornado risk is minimal.
On Saturday, isolated severe storms may again be possible across parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle, generally east of I-27 and north of Highway 82. That includes areas near Perryton, Canadian, Amarillo, McLean, Shamrock, Turkey, Childress, Quanah, and Vernon. Damaging winds remain the main concern.
Outside of the Panhandle, more scattered storms are expected this weekend across the southeastern half of Texas. Any storm may produce dangerous lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds.
Sunday into Monday and Tuesday may be the more active window for heavier rain.
Localized flooding will be possible Sunday across North Texas, Northeast Texas, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. On Monday, that risk may shift toward the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, East Texas, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle. By Tuesday, pockets of heavier rain may continue across the southern half of Texas.
This does not mean everyone gets rain every day. This is still a summer pattern. Some folks may get a quick 2 to 4 inches under a heavier storm, while others nearby get much less.
Forecast rain totals show a broad 1 to 3 inches possible on a regional basis from the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country east through Central Texas, South-Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, and the Golden Triangle. Localized totals could be higher.
The drought monitor has improved across Texas compared to what we often see in July, but about 31% of the state remains in drought. The Panhandle remains one of the driest areas, so hopefully storms today and Saturday can bring some beneficial rain without much wind damage.
Temperatures stay hot today, with triple digits across the Panhandle, West Texas, the Big Country, North Texas, Texoma, Permian Basin, Trans-Pecos, Borderland, and Big Bend. The southeastern half of Texas will mostly be in the 90s, but increasing humidity will make it feel hotter.
As rain and cloud chances increase Sunday into early next week, temperatures may come down a bit. By Tuesday, some areas may only be in the upper 80s and low 90s, which is pretty nice for mid-July in Texas.
By the second half of next week, the pattern may trend hotter and drier again.
Bottom line: storms and humidity return to Texas this weekend into early next week. It will not rain everywhere every day, but any storm can produce lightning, gusty winds, heavy rain, and localized flooding.
When thunder roars, get your keister indoors.
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Chapters:
0:00 Storms return to Texas this weekend
1:00 Coastal rain and Panhandle storms today
2:14 Severe storm risk: Panhandle today and Saturday
3:25 Heat dome shifts north, rain chances return
4:00 Daily storm chances this weekend into next week
4:52 Heavy rain and localized flooding outlook
6:07 Texas drought update
6:51 Forecast rain totals through early next week
7:59 Hot and humid today, cooler in spots next week
10:16 Late next week pattern outlook
10:38 El Niño and fall/winter weather preview
12:19 Member shout-outs and final thoughts
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