Storm chances are back across Texas, and concern is increasing that some areas may receive too much rain over the next several days.
This will not be an evenly distributed rainfall event. Some communities may receive little or nothing, while others experience repeated downpours capable of producing several inches of rain in a short period.
Watch today’s Texas Weather Roundup
Storms Continue Through Tuesday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across several regions of Texas through this evening. Some storms may continue overnight, particularly across the southeastern two-thirds of the state.
The most numerous storms will generally develop during the afternoon and early evening, but this pattern may also support rain after sunset.
Stronger storms may produce:
- Gusty or locally damaging winds
- Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
- Small hail
- Torrential rainfall
- Rapid street and low-water crossing flooding
Texas has plenty of tropical moisture in place. When a downpour develops, it may produce two to four inches of rain in about an hour. Even where the ground has recently been dry, rainfall at that rate can quickly overwhelm drainage and run into streets, creeks, streams, and low-lying areas.
Flooding Concern Grows Monday and Tuesday
The Weather Prediction Center highlights the potential for scattered flooding Monday across a large part of Texas, including:
- Eastern Big Bend
- Edwards Plateau
- Concho Valley
- Hill Country
- North and Central Texas
- South-Central Texas
- Brazos Valley
- Southeast Texas
- Piney Woods
- Golden Triangle
The flooding risk continues Tuesday. As repeated rounds of rain occur, soils will become more saturated and less able to absorb additional water.
There is also some potential for the flooding outlook to be upgraded in portions of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country if confidence continues to increase. Exactly where the heaviest rain corridor develops remains uncertain.
Heavy-Rain Focus Shifts West
By Tuesday through Thursday, the most persistent storm and heavy-rain activity may become focused farther west.
Areas to watch include the eastern Big Bend, Edwards Plateau, western Hill Country, Concho Valley, Permian Basin, and nearby portions of West and Central Texas.
Forecast rainfall totals through Friday have increased, with a broad three to six inches possible across portions of the Edwards Plateau, eastern Big Bend, and western Hill Country.
Some weather model guidance suggests localized totals above ten inches may be possible. That is not a forecast for every location, and the heaviest rainfall axis could shift into northern Mexico or farther northeast into the Hill Country.
Still, repeated heavy rainfall over the same watersheds could produce quick rises on creeks, streams, and rivers.
Watch Creeks, Streams, and Low-Water Crossings
Flooding from summer thunderstorms can begin quickly and may occur beyond the location where rain is currently falling.
Rain upstream can send water downstream into camping areas, crossings, and river access points after the storm has moved away.
Practical reminders:
- Do not drive through water covering a roadway.
- Avoid low-water crossings during and after heavy rain.
- Stay away from flooded creeks and drainage channels.
- Campers near waterways should monitor rainfall upstream.
- Keep up with river forecasts from the West Gulf River Forecast Center.
- Move indoors when thunder is heard.
Not Everyone Gets Rain
This remains a scattered and uneven summer storm pattern.
Some Texans may receive repeated rounds and several inches of rain. Others nearby may remain mostly dry and wonder where all the promised rain went.
After Tuesday, rain chances may decrease across the eastern half of Texas while the heavier-rain focus shifts toward western portions of the state. Isolated showers and storms may still occur elsewhere through the week.
Bottom Line
Several days of scattered storms are beginning across Texas.
The primary concern is no longer just lightning or gusty winds. Repeated downpours may produce rapid street flooding, hazardous low-water crossings, and quick rises on creeks, streams, and rivers.
The areas of greatest concern are gradually shifting from Central Texas and the Hill Country west toward the Edwards Plateau, eastern Big Bend, Concho Valley, and surrounding areas.
Track storms with the free Texas Storm Chasers interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar. Local forecasts, radar, and alerts are also available in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.