Dangerous localized flooding is possible tonight through Wednesday across parts of Texas, especially the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, South-Central Texas, and eastern Big Bend.
Not everyone in the highlighted areas will flood, and this does not look like a widespread statewide disaster. However, repeated slow-moving storms may produce extreme rainfall over small areas, causing rapid rises on creeks, streams, rivers, roads, and low-water crossings.
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A stationary boundary stretches from near Carlsbad, New Mexico, through the Permian Basin and Big Country toward Texoma, Northeast Texas, and the ArkLaTex.
South of that boundary, abundant moisture has supported numerous showers and thunderstorms across Central Texas, the Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas, East Texas, the ArkLaTex, and surrounding areas.
Tonight into early Tuesday, the Weather Prediction Center maintains a Level 3 of 4 Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall and flooding across portions of the Edwards Plateau.
The relative highest-risk area includes locations near:
– Del Rio
– Eagle Pass
– Southwest of Kerrville
– Western Hill Country
– Northern Edwards Plateau
– Eastern Big Bend
Scattered flooding is also possible across parts of:
– Hill Country
– Central Texas
– South-Central Texas
– Brazos Valley
– Southeast Texas
– East Texas
– Big Bend
– Concho Valley
– Permian Basin
Tuesday into Wednesday may bring another round of very heavy rain. The Moderate Risk expands across the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, eastern Big Bend, South-Central Texas, and the western edge of the San Antonio metro.
Areas to watch include:
– Kerrville
– Fredericksburg
– Junction
– Del Rio
– Eagle Pass
– Sanderson
– San Antonio
– Austin
– Mason
– Llano
– Brady
– Comfort
– Boerne
– San Angelo
The main concern is repeated slow-moving thunderstorms. Where storms set up and remain over the same area, rainfall totals may exceed 10 inches in only a few hours.
Forecast totals through the end of the week currently suggest:
– A widespread 3–7 inches in portions of the main corridor
– Localized totals of 10–15 inches
– Potentially higher isolated amounts where storms repeatedly track over the same location
Those extreme totals will not occur everywhere. Some communities may receive much less. The concern is where the localized high-end amounts fall—especially over vulnerable river basins and rocky Hill Country or Edwards Plateau terrain.
Heavy rainfall rates over four inches per hour have already occurred in parts of Texas. A large supply of moisture from the Gulf is continuously replenishing the atmosphere, allowing storms to produce extremely efficient rainfall.
Another potential concern Tuesday night into Wednesday is interaction between an area of low pressure moving southwest from Northeast Texas and another system near northern Mexico. If that interaction develops as forecast, another large area of heavy rain could form over portions of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Central Texas, and the Interstate 35 corridor.
Practical safety reminders:
– Have a way to receive flash flood warnings overnight
– Never drive through water covering a road
– Avoid low-water crossings
– Monitor creeks, streams, and rivers upstream
– Move to higher ground before water begins rising
– Do not camp immediately beside waterways during this setup
Texas Storm Chasers expects to provide a live update around 10 PM Central with the newest radar trends, rainfall totals, and forecast guidance.
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TexasStormChasers.com/radar
Get local forecasts, interactive radar, alerts, and video updates in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.
You can also find us at:
TSCWX.com
Chapters:
0:00 Dangerous flooding possible over the next few days
0:24 HTeaO sponsor and Monday evening update
0:48 What is happening across Texas right now
2:10 Flood risk tonight into early Tuesday
3:24 Multiple rounds and extreme rainfall potential
3:58 Tuesday into Wednesday flood outlook
5:14 Wednesday flood risk and overnight warning safety
6:14 Forecast totals: 3–7 inches with isolated 10–15 inches
7:18 Why storms may produce extreme rainfall
7:45 Tuesday night into Wednesday concern
8:33 Areas to watch from the Rio Grande to I-35
9:10 Live coverage plans and what to expect
10:31 Radar, app and final safety reminder
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