A potentially major flooding event is developing across portions of the Texas Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Central Texas, and South-Central Texas.
More than a foot of rain has already fallen in parts of Medina, Bandera, Uvalde, Edwards, and Real counties. Creeks, streams, and rivers have risen rapidly around Uvalde, Hondo, and communities west of San Antonio.
Unfortunately, another round of very heavy to extreme rainfall is expected tonight into Wednesday morning.
This article reflects the forecast as of noon Tuesday, July 14, 2026.
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Level 4 Flood Risk Tonight
The Weather Prediction Center has introduced a Level 4 of 4 High Risk for excessive rainfall and major flooding across portions of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Central Texas, and South-Central Texas.
The highest-concern corridor includes areas near:
- Uvalde and Hondo
- Del Rio and Eagle Pass
- Kerrville and Fredericksburg
- Junction and Sanderson
- Western portions of the San Antonio metro
- Eastern Big Bend and northern Edwards Plateau
Austin and San Antonio are close enough to the expected heavy-rain corridor that both metros need to remain weather-aware. The exact axis may shift east or west by several counties.
Not everyone inside the risk area will experience major flooding. However, locations repeatedly hit by slow-moving storms could see serious or potentially catastrophic impacts.
More Than a Foot Has Already Fallen
Overnight and Tuesday morning, parts of Medina, Uvalde, Bandera, Edwards, and Real counties received more than a foot of rain.
Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour have already occurred. Additional storms are developing, and another concentrated area of heavy rain may form tonight.
A temporary decrease in rainfall intensity this afternoon does not mean the event is over.
The atmosphere remains loaded with tropical moisture. Any storm that forms can efficiently squeeze out a tremendous amount of rain.
Why Tonight Could Become Dangerous
An area of circulation known as a mesoscale convective vortex, or MCV, is expected to help focus storms tonight into Wednesday morning.
This circulation may continually draw moisture inland from the Gulf. Storms rotating around it could remain over the same locations for several hours.
That creates the potential for:
- Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour
- Rapid street and low-water crossing flooding
- Major rises on creeks and streams
- River flooding
- Washed-out or impassable roads
- Frequent lightning and gusty winds
The rocky and limestone terrain of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau makes the situation more dangerous. Water runs off quickly into roads, creeks, streams, and river channels instead of soaking into deep soil.
Rain falling upstream may also cause water to rise downstream where it is not raining.
How Much Rain Could Fall?
A broad 3 to 7 inches of additional rain is possible in portions of the primary corridor through the middle of the week.
Localized totals of 10 to 15 inches are possible where storms repeatedly develop over the same area.
One high-resolution model depicts an isolated maximum near 20 inches west of San Antonio. That should be treated as a high-end scenario rather than an exact forecast, but it demonstrates how efficient these storms could become.
Some communities will receive less than the regional forecast. Others may receive considerably more.
The concern is not that every location receives extreme rainfall. The concern is where those localized extreme totals fall—especially if they occur over a vulnerable river basin.
Flooding Risk Continues Wednesday and Thursday
Rain and storm chances will continue Wednesday, Wednesday night, and into Thursday.
Another stationary band of heavy rain may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning from the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country toward Central Texas and the Interstate 35 corridor.
By Thursday, the primary rain focus should gradually shift farther west toward the Big Bend, Permian Basin, Concho Valley, and western Hill Country.
Rain chances may begin decreasing toward the weekend, but the next several days need to be handled one round at a time.
What You Need to Do
Have multiple ways to receive warnings tonight. Do not rely on hearing thunder or rain to wake you up.
- Enable Wireless Emergency Alerts on your phone.
- Keep phones charged overnight.
- Follow your local emergency management, fire department, police department, and county officials.
- Avoid unnecessary overnight travel in the highest-risk areas.
- Never drive through water covering a road.
- Stay away from low-water crossings.
- Monitor conditions upstream if you live or camp near a creek, stream, or river.
- Leave immediately if local officials tell you to evacuate.
Your truck is not a submarine. Roads may be washed out underneath floodwater even when the water does not look especially deep.
Bottom Line
A major localized flooding threat is developing across portions of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, Central Texas, South-Central Texas, and eastern Big Bend.
Not everyone will flood. However, repeated slow-moving storms may produce extreme rainfall tonight into Wednesday morning, with additional rounds possible Wednesday night and Thursday.
The most serious impacts may include flooded roads, washed-out low-water crossings, and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers.
Texas Storm Chasers will provide frequent updates throughout the event.
Track storms with our interactive radar at TexasStormChasers.com/radar. Local forecasts, warnings, radar, and video updates are also available in the free Texas Storm Chasers mobile app.