Tropical mischief is brewing in the Gulf, and unfortunately, recent trends have not exactly been our friend.
Tropical Depression Two formed Sunday afternoon in the northeastern Gulf, about 190 miles southeast of Panama City, Florida. The system will likely become Tropical Storm Bertha over the next day or two as it moves west along the northern Gulf Coast.
The current forecast brings the system near Louisiana around Wednesday or Thursday before potentially moving into Texas late Thursday or Friday.
That does not mean we have a hurricane heading directly toward Texas. It does mean Texans—especially those along the coast and across the southern half of the state—need to start paying attention.
The system is still a disorganized mess
Tropical Depression Two is not particularly impressive right now.
Moderate wind shear and some dry air are interfering with the circulation. The system has plenty of thunderstorms and tropical moisture, but it does not yet have a well-organized center.
Rapid intensification is not currently expected.
Could the forecast change? Absolutely. If the depression moves farther offshore and spends more time over open water, it could become better organized and perhaps strengthen into a more substantial tropical storm.
A minimal hurricane cannot be completely ruled out, but that is not the most likely outcome based on the system’s current structure and environment.
Anyone already giving you precise wind speeds, Texas rainfall totals, or county-by-county impacts for Thursday and Friday is selling certainty that does not exist yet.
Why the track matters
A strong area of high pressure—our incoming heat dome—is expected to steer the system west or west-southwest along its southern edge.
That should carry the depression along the northern Gulf Coast before potentially bringing it toward Texas later this week.
A track close to the Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana coasts would limit how much the system can strengthen.
A track farther south over open water would give it more time to organize and could increase its intensity before it reaches Louisiana or Texas.
Even a difference of 50 to 100 miles could significantly change the rainfall, wind and coastal-impact forecast.
What Texas could experience
The earliest reasonable arrival of stronger wind gusts along the Upper Texas Gulf Coast would be late Wednesday evening.
That does not mean tropical-storm-force winds are guaranteed. It simply represents the earliest point when gusts near or above 40 mph could begin reaching parts of the coast.
Potential coastal impacts later this week include:
- Dangerous rip currents
- Rough surf and higher waves
- Coastal flooding
- Gusty winds
- Periods of heavy tropical rain
Rip-current danger will increase along much of the Texas coast regardless of whether the center eventually moves directly into the state.
Please pay attention to beach flags and local officials. The Gulf does not care how good of a swimmer you think you are.
Rain is the biggest Texas concern
The wind forecast matters, but rain is our biggest concern.
Central Texas, the Hill Country, South Texas and the Coastal Plains are still dealing with the aftermath of last week’s flooding. Water continues moving downstream through rivers, tributaries and drainage basins.
We do not exactly need another tropical rainmaker showing up.
A farther-north track could focus the heaviest rain over Louisiana, Southeast Texas and the Upper Texas Gulf Coast.
A farther-south track could bring heavier rain toward the middle or lower coast, South Texas and potentially portions of Central Texas or the Hill Country.
The system could also remain weak, move inland east of Texas and mostly wash itself out before it becomes our problem.
We simply do not know which scenario will occur yet.
That uncertainty is not a failure of forecasting. The system is still forming, and until it develops a better-defined circulation, the finer details will remain highly changeable.
Hot and mostly quiet before late week
Most of Texas will spend the first half of the week hot and humid under the influence of high pressure.
Widespread storms are not expected Monday through Wednesday, although a few isolated summertime storms may still pop up.
Rain chances could begin increasing along the Upper Texas Gulf Coast Wednesday night before spreading into portions of the coast and southern half of Texas Thursday and Friday.
How far inland that rain reaches will depend on the eventual track and organization of the tropical system.
What Texans should do now
This is not the time for panic or a hurricane-shopping spree.
It is time to keep an eye on the Gulf.
Check your normal supplies, make sure your weather alerts are enabled and review any beach, boating or travel plans you have for later this week.
Residents near rivers and recently flooded areas should pay particular attention as the rainfall forecast becomes clearer.
Do not make major decisions based on one social-media model image showing a storm track five days from now. Those maps will change—probably several times.
Bottom line
Tropical Depression Two will likely become Tropical Storm Bertha while moving west along the northern Gulf Coast.
Texas could experience heavy tropical rain, gusty coastal winds, dangerous surf and coastal flooding late this week.
The exact track and Texas impact corridor remain uncertain. A powerful hurricane is not currently expected, but the system’s organization and environment will need to be watched closely over the next several days.
No hype. No panic. Just start paying attention, and we’ll keep you updated as the forecast becomes clearer.