Tropical Storm Bertha is moving west across the Gulf of Mexico, generally in the direction of Texas. That sounds dramatic until we look at what the atmosphere is actually doing.
Bertha does not currently look like a significant weather event for Texas. The heat does.
A strong heat dome is settling over the state, with widespread triple-digit temperatures, dangerously high heat-index values, and very little relief after sunset. That will be the primary weather concern for most Texans through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
Bertha remains heavily disrupted by wind shear
Bertha had maximum sustained winds of around 60 mph Tuesday, but the storm was already encountering strong northeasterly wind shear.
That wind shear is pushing most of Bertha’s thunderstorms and heavier rainfall well south of the center of circulation. It is not a healthy structure for a tropical cyclone, and conditions should become even more hostile as the system moves west.
Bertha is expected to weaken over the next few days. There is also a reasonable possibility that the system could dissipate before its circulation ever reaches Texas.
Even if some of Bertha’s leftover moisture survives, high pressure over Texas will make it difficult for widespread or prolonged rainfall to develop.
In plain English: Bertha is moving toward us, but the atmosphere is preparing to squish it into tropical oblivion. We will monitor trends in data over the next day, and let you know if Mother Nature tries pulling a fast one on us with a change in the forecast.
Limited impacts possible along the Texas Gulf Coast
Bertha may still bring a few relatively minor impacts to the Texas Gulf Coast Thursday through Friday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop from Southeast Texas through the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and portions of South Texas. A few storms may produce lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall.
Most communities will remain dry, and this does not look anything like the prolonged heavy-rain event that caused catastrophic flooding last week.
Rain is not expected to fall for hours at a time across a widespread area. Any showers or storms should be scattered and relatively short-lived.
The more consistent coastal concern will be dangerous rip currents along the entire Texas Gulf Coast. Some minor coastal flooding may also occur along portions of the Upper Texas Gulf Coast as elevated water levels and rougher surf reach the shoreline.
There is no reason based on the current forecast to cancel a trip to the Texas coast solely because of Bertha. Beachgoers should still follow local beach flags, lifeguards, and coastal safety information.
Rip currents can become dangerous even when the weather on the beach appears relatively calm.
This is not a repeat of last week
Many Texans are understandably uneasy after the catastrophic flooding across the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and portions of South Texas.
Bertha does not currently look capable of producing a repeat of that event.
The strong heat dome over Texas will produce sinking air, which suppresses widespread thunderstorm development. Bertha’s limited moisture may help generate a few scattered coastal storms, but the setup does not support another widespread 10-to-20-inch rainfall event.
We will continue watching Bertha because Mama Nature occasionally enjoys trolling the forecast. However, there is no reason for hyperbole based on the information available Tuesday afternoon.
Dangerous Texas heat gets worse Wednesday
The bigger problem is the heat.
Most of Texas will climb into the triple digits Wednesday. Afternoon air temperatures across the eastern half of the state are expected to reach approximately 102 to 106 degrees.
Laredo may approach 110 degrees.
The combination of heat and humidity could produce heat-index values between 108 and 115 degrees across portions of Central, North, East, Southeast, and South Texas.
That is dangerous heat, especially for people working outdoors, those helping with flood recovery, older adults, young children, and anyone without dependable air conditioning.
Recent rainfall has left plenty of moisture in the soil across parts of the southern half of Texas. As that moisture evaporates, it will keep humidity levels higher and make the heat feel even worse.
The thermometer may say 103 degrees, but your body may experience conditions closer to 110 or 115 degrees.
Little relief expected overnight
The lack of nighttime cooling will make this heat wave more dangerous.
Temperatures across the eastern half of Texas may remain in the 80s for much of the night. Urban areas, including Dallas-Fort Worth, may struggle to fall below the middle 80s.
Thursday morning may be even warmer in some locations.
Hot nights prevent homes and the human body from cooling adequately. The risk of heat-related illness increases when dangerously hot afternoons are followed by very little overnight relief.
Yes, this is Texas in July. No, that does not make prolonged excessive heat harmless.
Triple-digit temperatures continue through the weekend
The heat dome is expected to remain influential through the weekend and probably beyond.
Most Texans can expect additional triple-digit afternoons Friday and Saturday. Even Far West Texas will begin warming after several comparatively cooler days around the Borderland and higher terrain.
The immediate Gulf Coast may receive limited heat relief from additional clouds and scattered showers associated with Bertha’s remaining moisture.
Everyone else should prepare for more sunshine, fewer rain chances, and temperatures near or above 100 degrees.
There is currently no strong signal that the heat will break during the next seven to ten days.
It is time to start counting consecutive triple-digit days. Mama Nature found the oven controls, and she apparently intends to leave them alone for a while.
Take the heat seriously
Drink water regularly instead of waiting until you feel thirsty. Take frequent breaks in air conditioning or shade, and move strenuous outdoor work to the morning whenever possible.
Check on older neighbors, outdoor workers, and anyone who may not have reliable air conditioning.
Never leave children or pets inside a parked vehicle, even briefly.
People assisting with flood cleanup and recovery should be especially careful. Protective clothing, physical labor, humidity, and direct sunlight can cause heat illness to develop quickly.
Early signs of heat exhaustion may include heavy sweating, weakness, dizziness, headache, nausea, or muscle cramps. Move into a cooler area and seek help before symptoms become more serious.
Keep an eye on the sky with the free Texas Storm Chasers interactive weather radar:
https://texastormchasers.com/radar
Local forecasts and additional Texas weather updates are available at: