Today is your last decent shot at a storm before the heat dome slides back over Texas for the weekend. Burn bans are up to 200 of our 254 counties, and the September outlook doesn’t offer much hope. It’s your Texas Weather Roundup for Friday, August 28, 2026.
STORMS TODAY
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the Hill Country, South Central Texas, the Coastal Plains and Southeast Texas — about a 20 to 40% chance of a storm nearby.
That means dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and possibly a few new wildfire starts if lightning hits the wrong thing. We had several lightning-caused starts yesterday afternoon and evening.
Outside those areas it’s about a 1 in 10 shot in the Borderland. The Big Bend, Davis Mountains, West Texas and the Panhandle aren’t getting rain today. North Texas and the Ark-La-Tex come into play tonight.
Rain chances diminish after sunset, though an isolated storm is still possible around El Paso and the Borderland, and across South Texas, Southeast Texas and the Gulf Coast.
THE WEEKEND
A few pop-up storms may continue along the Texas Gulf Coast, but the heat dome currently sitting to our west moves back east. More sinking air arrives, rain chances generally shut off, and temperatures are not coming down.
FIRE DANGER
Today: High to Very High across the eastern half of Texas, especially where we’re getting lightning starts. Generally Low across the western half.
Saturday: Moderate across most of Texas with a few instances of High — a lot better than several days ago.
Sunday: things dry out more, temperatures warm back up and winds increase a bit. High fire danger returns to the eastern half of Texas, extending northwest up the Caprock into the Texas Panhandle.
200 BURN BANS
200 of 254 Texas counties are under a burn ban. Check with your local county officials before doing any burning. Things are combustible right now, so it wouldn’t be the best idea regardless.
NEXT WEEK
The heat dome has been parked to our west for a couple of days, which gave us weak northerly flow aloft across the eastern two-thirds of Texas and let a few weak disturbances slide through. That’s how we got several days of pop-up storms.
That ends as the heat dome sits itself right over us this weekend into the first half of next week.
The second half of next week is still uncertain. It stays hot regardless, but there are some indications of a weak tropical disturbance trying to work into the eastern and southeastern half of Texas, which could bump rain chances slightly. Across the Panhandle and West Texas there are hints of some monsoonal moisture.
Nothing widespread, and nothing that indicates a significant pattern change.
RAIN OUTLOOK
Through 7 AM Wednesday, September 2, most of the state isn’t seeing rain. Outside of today’s light showers and pop-up storms across the southeastern half, the weekend gives way to essentially nothing beyond a lucky storm or two.
SEPTEMBER OUTLOOK
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for the first week of September shows no big pattern change. Above-average temperatures across the eastern 75% of the continental United States, with Texas sitting right under it. Below-average precipitation for the state.
Not a huge surprise, but not what any of us wanted to see.
When thunder roars, get your keister indoors — and please don’t tempt Mama Nature into getting you struck by lightning.
Back bright and early Monday with a brand new Texas Weather Roundup. Y’all have an amazing weekend.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Storm Chances & the Weekend Ahead
0:42 Today’s Storms: Who Gets Rain
1:38 Heat Dome Returns This Weekend
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