The forecast has changed. A tropical disturbance in the Gulf is now organizing and heading our way, bringing heavy rain and a flooding risk to Southeast Texas starting Monday night. Special update for Sunday afternoon, August 30, 2026.
WHAT’S OUT THERE
A tropical disturbance is sitting in the northern Gulf this afternoon, about 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana, south of New Orleans. The National Hurricane Center has designated it Invest 97L, and satellite imagery shows it has become better organized since yesterday.
It’s drifting slowly westward to west-northwestward. NHC currently puts formation odds at 30% through 48 hours, and says a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night.
My own read: I think those development probabilities go up tonight and tomorrow. If it gets a name, it would be Edouard.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Whether or not this becomes a named system matters less than the rain. What’s increasing in probability is heavy rainfall.
Beginning Monday night into Tuesday and Wednesday, Southeast Texas and the upper Texas Gulf Coast face:
Heavy rainfall and localized to scattered flooding
Strong gusty winds
A few spin-up tornadoes and waterspouts
That includes Galveston, Houston and Beaumont.
HOW MUCH RAIN
As it stands right now, 2 to 6 inches is possible across the Houston metro, Galveston to Beaumont, and Southeast Texas from Monday night through Wednesday.
Depending on the eventual track and intensity, rain chances could increase farther north as well.
WHY THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE
This is a homegrown system sitting close to our coastline already, and it hasn’t organized yet. Until it does — probably tomorrow — confidence stays low and the details will shift.
This is a rapidly evolving forecast. Check back tonight, Monday and into Tuesday. It is entirely possible we have a tropical storm heading our way.
Stay weather aware. The National Hurricane Center has the latest on development, and we’ll be here with updates as we see them.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Tropical Disturbance Developing in the Gulf
0:47 The Threat to Southeast Texas
1:49 Rainfall Totals & What’s Still Uncertain
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