A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the upper Texas Gulf Coast. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to become a tropical storm before making landfall Tuesday, bringing heavy rain and scattered flooding to Southeast Texas. It’s your Texas Weather Roundup for Monday, August 31, 2026.
WHAT “POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE” MEANS
The National Hurricane Center uses that designation when a system isn’t yet a tropical cyclone but threatens land within 72 hours. It lets them issue warnings and forecast products before the system officially organizes. If it develops a closed circulation with 40 mph winds, it becomes Edouard.
THE FORECAST
We expect a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds around 45 to 50 mph to make landfall Tuesday afternoon, probably around dinnertime, very near the Texas-Louisiana state line. Possibly a bit west of Beaumont, potentially Chambers County, in the Golden Triangle area.
This is a very small, compact system. It is not a big widespread rain-maker for all of Texas, and we don’t expect it to stall. It should make steady northwest progress until it dissipates Wednesday.
But small systems fluctuate in intensity fast, both up and down. Sea surface temperatures are in the upper 80s Fahrenheit, around 30 Celsius, and wind shear isn’t especially strong. If it organizes a defined inner core today, it could get rambunctious in a hurry.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the upper Texas Gulf Coast, meaning tropical storm force winds over 40 mph are possible Tuesday. Gusty winds could extend inland as well.
A Flood Watch is also in effect. Locations specifically named in the warning include Nederland, Port Arthur, Sabine Pass and Sea Rim State Park.
FLOODING RISK
Tuesday brings scattered flash flooding potential across Southeast Texas into the Golden Triangle, including Houston, Galveston and Beaumont. It may end up an even narrower corridor than the graphics show.
Wednesday, that risk could continue up Interstate 45 into the eastern Brazos Valley and East Texas, maybe toward Fairfield and Corsicana. It depends heavily on the exact track of this very small system.
RAIN TOTALS
Over 4 inches across portions of Southeast Texas, the eastern Brazos Valley and western sections of the Piney Woods of East Texas. This may reach up toward southeastern North Texas.
Expect 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts over 8 inches. That’s why flooding is the primary concern.
COASTAL IMPACTS
1 to 2 feet of above normal tide across the upper Texas Gulf Coast from San Luis Pass and Galveston Bay to High Island. 1 to 3 feet from High Island toward Sabine Pass at the state line, extending east along the southern Louisiana coast.
Note this is tide anomaly, not storm surge inundation. Official products currently show little to no storm surge flooding threat. But rough surf, coastal erosion and life-threatening rip currents are all possible. If you’re headed to the beach, that’s the hazard most likely to hurt you.
THE REST OF TEXAS
Hot and mostly dry. That part hasn’t changed.
Fire danger stays High to Very High across a decent chunk of Texas today, continuing Tuesday and Wednesday. Low fire danger shows up in Southeast Texas, which makes sense with a landfalling tropical system. Everyone else, Moderate to High. Wednesday adds Low in the Brazos Valley.
TEMPERATURES
90s to low triple digits today. Tonight, lows mostly in the 70s, 80s in Houston, Corpus Christi and DFW, a few upper 60s in the higher terrain of the northwestern Panhandle and the Davis Mountains.
Temperatures get less obnoxious in Southeast Texas Tuesday and the Brazos Valley and parts of East Texas Wednesday as cloud cover and rain move inland. Wednesday: 89 in Beaumont, 91 in Houston, 93 in Bryan-College Station. Everywhere it isn’t cloudy and rainy, mostly triple digits.
WHAT’S NEXT
We’ll have additional videos through the day focused solely on the tropics, plus updates on Facebook, X, Threads, the website and the app.
Most of Texas won’t be impacted. But compact systems bring their own challenges, and this one deserves a close eye.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Tropical Mischief Changes the Forecast
0:52 What Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Means
2:12 Tropical Storm Warning in Effect
3:01 Flash Flooding Risk Tuesday & Wednesday
3:36 Rain Totals: 4-8 Inches Possible
4:07 Coastal Flooding & Tides
4:42 The Rest of Texas Stays Hot and Dry
5:40 Temperatures This Week
6:43 What’s Next & Update Plan
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