Tropical Depression Five is organizing in the northern Gulf and is likely to become Tropical Storm Edouard tonight before making landfall Tuesday evening on the upper Texas Gulf Coast. A Storm Surge Watch has now been issued. Monday afternoon update, August 31, 2026, 4:30 PM Central.
WHAT CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING
Three things, and all of them are upgrades:
Peak winds now expected near 60 mph before landfall, up from 45-50
A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the upper Texas Gulf Coast
Rain totals along the track raised to 5-10 inches
WHERE IT IS
As of the 4 PM advisory, Tropical Depression Five is about 210 miles southeast of Beaumont, moving west-northwest at 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, minimum central pressure 1,011 millibars.
The lower that pressure drops, the more organized the system gets and the higher the winds go. It needs sustained winds of 39 mph to become Edouard.
Hurricane Hunters investigated this morning, with another flight tonight.
THE TRACK
Moving northwest tonight into tomorrow, with landfall right around dinnertime Tuesday on the upper Texas Gulf Coast — likely east of Galveston, maybe the Bolivar Peninsula, over toward Sabine Pass closer to the Louisiana state line.
Guidance has trended a bit west compared to earlier today, so the cone and track have shifted west with it.
WHY A SMALL SYSTEM IS A PROBLEM
This is a very compact system, and that cuts both ways. Sea surface temperatures are near 90 degrees Fahrenheit and there isn’t much wind shear. The smaller the system, the faster it can change intensity — in either direction.
Ballerina effect: arms out wide, you spin slowly; bring them in, you spin faster. Same principle here.
If this starts strengthening, it may strengthen in a hurry. We don’t like systems forming this close to the coast — it means fast-changing forecasts and less time to react.
STORM SURGE WATCH
A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the upper Texas Gulf Coast, with 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above normal tidal levels from High Island into southern Louisiana. That’s a change from this morning, when little to no surge threat was forecast.
WARNINGS & TIMING
A Tropical Storm Warning covers Galveston into southwest Louisiana, including Beaumont, for tropical storm force winds of 40 to possibly 70 mph at times.
Wind arrival is most likely after 8 AM Tuesday, more probably in the afternoon along the upper Texas coast.
Because the system is so small, the strongest winds won’t extend far — possibly only 20 miles from the center of circulation.
RAIN TOTALS
Because the system is compact, heavy rain stays in a narrow corridor along the track, possibly only a few counties wide.
5 to 10 inches from the coast northwest through Southeast Texas as it moves inland Tuesday night into Wednesday. 3 to 7 inches in the eastern Brazos Valley. All dependent on the exact track and how fast it weakens inland.
This is not a widespread eastern-half-of-Texas rain event.
FLASH FLOODING TIMELINE
Scattered to locally numerous flash flooding Tuesday afternoon, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning across parts of Southeast Texas, the Golden Triangle, and up toward Bryan-College Station.
Wednesday, that risk spreads a bit farther north into the eastern Brazos Valley and southeast of the DFW Metroplex — Corsicana, Fairfield, Limestone County, down toward Lake Conroe and parts of East Texas — before the system mostly dissipates. We expect dissipation by Thursday morning as it moves toward North Texas.
THE WORST-CASE SCENARIO
The rate of intensification determines how strong this gets. The high-end data — the relatively worst case right now — has this near or just below hurricane strength at landfall.
In all likelihood it comes in below that, with maximum sustained winds in a small portion of the system near 60 to 70 mph.
Other hazards: coastal flooding, storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above tidal norms from High Island into southwest Louisiana, spin-up tornadoes east of the center of circulation, and flooding along the track.
Next video update after 10 PM Central with the new forecast package, sooner if needed. More frequent updates on social media and the app.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Edouard Expected Tonight
0:57 Tropical Depression Five Status
1:32 The 4 PM Forecast Track
2:31 Why Small Systems Are Dangerous
3:10 Stronger Winds & New Storm Surge Watch
3:46 Warnings & Wind Arrival Times
4:32 Rain Totals: 5-10 Inches
5:29 Flash Flooding Timeline
6:18 The Worst-Case Scenario
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