Tropical Storm Edouard has formed, a Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the upper Texas coast into southwest Louisiana, and landfall has moved earlier. Late update for Monday, August 31, 2026, 10 PM Central.
WHAT CHANGED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON
A HURRICANE WATCH is now in effect from High Island east through southwest Louisiana, in addition to the Tropical Storm Warning
Landfall timing moved earlier — now noon to 5 PM Central Tuesday, not dinnertime
Storm surge raised again to 3 to 5 feet from High Island to Cameron, Louisiana
The system is now Tropical Storm Edouard
WHERE IT IS
Edouard is 155 miles southeast of Port Arthur, moving northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds around 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure is down to 1,005 millibars, from 1,010 earlier today. Some buoy data suggests it may be running a bit lower than that. The lower the pressure, the more organized the system.
HURRICANE WATCH
The Hurricane Watch means there is a low but not zero probability this briefly reaches hurricane status right before landfall Tuesday afternoon. That’s a real possibility worth planning around, not a forecast.
LANDFALL
Expected near the Bolivar Peninsula, or maybe just east of there, between noon and 5 PM Central Tuesday. There are some discrepancies in guidance on exact timing, but it’s an afternoon landfall — earlier than earlier forecasts suggested.
Track continues northwest after landfall, toward Southeast Texas and the eastern Brazos Valley.
STORM SURGE — THE PART I’M WATCHING
Surge probabilities have come up every single advisory. We’re now looking at 3 to 5 feet along and east of the landfall location, from High Island to Cameron, Louisiana.
That means parts of the upper Texas Gulf Coast could be dealing with a dangerous landfalling surge Tuesday afternoon.
Follow orders from your local officials. Be ready to move inland.
FLOODING IS STILL THE MAIN ISSUE
After landfall the system weakens but keeps moving northwest, bringing a corridor of very heavy rainfall up the Interstate 45 corridor with an associated flooding risk.
Heavy rain and a spin-up tornado risk continue into Wednesday across portions of Southeast Texas, southeastern North Texas and the eastern Brazos Valley.
DAMAGING WINDS
Possible near the landfall location, but this is a very small system. The area of 40, 50, 60 and 70 mph wind potential is narrow, and it weakens quickly once inland.
WHAT TO EXPECT TUESDAY
A small corridor of damaging wind potential. Dangerous storm surge. Heavy rain and flooding. A spin-up tornado threat.
Full forecast briefing tomorrow morning. Stay weather aware.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Tropical Storm Edouard Is Named
0:39 Hurricane Watch Now in Effect
1:38 Storm Surge Raised to 3-5 Feet
2:39 What to Expect Tuesday
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