Rainfall rates of 3 to 5 inches per hour are setting up tonight along Edouard’s track through East Texas, with over 10 inches possible in spots. Evening update for Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 9:30 PM Central.
NOTE: I misspoke in the intro and said “Thursday” — this is the Tuesday evening update.
WHERE EDOUARD IS
Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall around 2:20 PM Central, about 15 miles east of Port Arthur just west of the Louisiana state line, and has been moving northwest at 8 to 9 mph ever since.
The rain that dropped several inches on Beaumont and Port Arthur has now moved north of Interstate 10, with gusty winds subsiding there.
TONIGHT’S TRACK
As we move into the overnight, the heaviest rain is consolidating near the center of circulation. That center tracks northwest up Highway 287 toward Woodville, Livingston and Corrigan, and eventually maybe up toward Crockett and Diboll overnight into Wednesday morning.
Hourly rainfall rates of 3 to 5 inches per hour are possible near the system, along with wind gusts over 45 mph.
Rate matters more than total here. Ten inches spread over a day is an inconvenience. Three to five inches in an hour is how creeks come up fast and how places that don’t normally flood end up flooding.
WHY WE’RE CONCERNED
This is a very compact, localized cyclone, and that’s expected to continue overnight. Model guidance shows that heavy rain area barely moving all night around Livingston, Lufkin and Jasper.
This is the same situation we saw last July and again this July with warm-core lows: at night, the heaviest rain concentrates in a small area near the center of circulation. That’s what produces double-digit rain totals in a matter of hours.
OVER 10 INCHES TONIGHT
Model output shows rainfall over 10 inches in spots tonight around Livingston, southeast toward Woodville and Lumberton, and even toward Lufkin.
That isn’t written in stone, but it’s a real concern. It would produce localized but potentially significant rapid-onset flooding — streams, creeks, and areas that don’t typically flood.
WEDNESDAY & THE SECOND ROUND
Wednesday afternoon the rain area broadens out. Scattered storms could work back into the Houston metro, which really hasn’t gotten anything yet, along with the Golden Triangle, East Texas and southeastern North Texas.
Then Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the same thing happens again. The heavy rain concentrates near the center of what will be Edouard’s remnants — this time across southeastern and eastern North Texas, east of the DFW Metroplex.
That threat spreads northwest toward Cooper, Palestine and Athens, up Highway 287 and 175.
Someone tonight could get over 10 inches. Someone tomorrow night could get over 10 inches. Add it up and that’s how you end up with absurd storm totals.
WHAT’S OVER, WHAT ISN’T
The storm surge threat is essentially over. The damaging wind threat will gradually subside, though strong gusts continue near the heavier storms.
What we’re left with is a whole lot of heavy rain.
WHO ISN’T AFFECTED
This is not an issue for areas west of Interstate 45. This is not an issue for the Ark-La-Tex.
This stays in a relatively confined corridor along Edouard’s path — from near Lumberton tonight, slowly up toward Livingston, Lufkin, Cooper, Palestine and Athens through tomorrow night.
Expect flash flood warnings. Please stay weather aware overnight.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Where Edouard Is Now
0:52 Tonight’s Track & 3-5″ Per Hour Rates
1:59 Why We’re Concerned
3:25 Over 10 Inches Possible Tonight
4:00 Wednesday Night’s Second Round
4:51 Who Isn’t Affected
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