Texas rain this week will be a good soaking for most of us and a flooding problem for some. Here’s where, when, and why most of Texas won’t flood, with rain starting out west tonight and reaching I-35 by Thursday.
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Texas Weather Roundup lunchtime update, Tuesday, September 29, 2026. A nerdier version comes out around 6:30 PM.
THE SETUP
A slow-moving upper-level storm system works west to east across the Southwest into the southern Plains the next few days. Hurricane Polo is making its final landfall in Mexico today, and its remnant moisture flows northeast into Texas.
FLOOD RISK BY DAY
Tonight is busiest across the western quarter: the western half of the Panhandle, West Texas and the Borderland. Scattered to numerous instances of flooding are possible.
Wednesday shifts to Texoma, North Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, western Hill Country and the northern Edwards Plateau. That expanded southwest since last night, since rowdier storms look possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.
Thursday, the highest risk runs right along I-35 from Laredo and Eagle Pass up through San Antonio, Kerrville, Fredericksburg, Killeen, Waco, DFW, Gainesville and Sherman into Oklahoma.
Friday, localized heavy rain stays possible in the eastern half. Saturday, mainly the southeastern third. The western half dries out behind a Pacific cool front.
A higher risk level means a higher chance of heavy rain causing flooding near you. It is not a guarantee of widespread flooding.
SEVERE STORMS
Today, the western quarter could see localized damaging winds and a brief tornado. Wednesday, that moves into Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country, with some hail too. Thursday, isolated severe storms are possible along the heaviest rain from North Texas through Central Texas, the Hill Country, Brazos Valley and South Texas.
It’s not a high risk. But a few brief tornadoes are possible over the next few days.
WHERE I’M WATCHING
Tonight, I’m honestly a little worried about the Amarillo area, where storms could train over the same spots. Wednesday it’s the Big Country, Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. Thursday and Friday, somewhere between the 281 corridor and I-35.
The strongest storms can drop more than 3 inches of rain per hour if they sit in one spot. That’s how you get street flooding, rising creeks, and eventually some river rises.
LET’S KEEP IT REALISTIC
Nearly the entire state gets rain through Sunday morning. For most folks, this is a good soaking rain we badly need.
I know the trend right now is to scream MAJOR FLOODING and grab 15 minutes of fame. Not everyone is going to flood. Some of us will have problems where the heaviest rain sets up, and that’s what we’ll be here to tell you about.
FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES
Still hot today and tomorrow where it isn’t raining. By Friday, highs are in the 60s and 70s across the western half and the 80s to low 90s in the east. Saturday brings 84 in Austin, 78 in Fort Worth and 73 in Amarillo. Y’all might need sweaters.
By Sunday morning, it’s 50s across the western half with a few upper 40s in the Panhandle, and low to mid 60s in DFW.
Turn around, don’t drown.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Rain Moves Across Texas This Week
0:57 The Setup & Polo’s Moisture
1:24 Tonight’s Flood Risk Out West
2:00 Wednesday’s Flood Risk
2:22 Thursday’s Flood Risk Along I-35
2:52 What the Risk Levels Mean
3:31 Drying Out Behind a Cool Front
3:57 Severe Storm Chances
4:43 Hour by Hour: Amarillo Tonight
5:48 Storms Stall Near I-35
6:54 Rain Rates Over 3 Inches Per Hour
7:37 How Much Rain
8:25 Let’s Keep It Realistic
9:11 Fall-Like Temperatures
9:59 Weekend Lows
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