Severe storms and tornado warnings hit the Texas Panhandle tonight, and this week’s Texas rain is just getting started. Here’s what’s next, from West Texas tonight to I-35 and the Hill Country Thursday.
Live radar: https://texasstormchasers.com/radar
Texas Weather Roundup evening update, Tuesday, September 29, 2026. If more tornado warnings or major flooding pop up, we’ll go live.
TONIGHT
We just wrapped tornado warning coverage in the Panhandle. The tornado risk over the next few days isn’t high, but it isn’t zero either.
New Mexico is getting clobbered, and so are the Trans-Pecos, Guadalupe Mountains, the Borderland and the Panhandle. Overnight, the strongest storms across West Texas and the Panhandle could drop 2 to 3 inches of rain an hour.
WEDNESDAY
Early Wednesday, strong to severe storms with gusty winds and hail are possible just east of Lubbock and west of Abilene near Sweetwater, with heavy rain across the Panhandle and Northwest Texas.
There could be a break from late morning into early afternoon as a lot of it heads into Oklahoma. Then skies clear, things destabilize, and scattered severe storms go up by mid-afternoon across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Permian Basin and western North Texas. Pocket-change hail and localized damaging winds are the main threats. Tornado threat looks very low.
After sunset Wednesday, it lights up like a Christmas tree. Very heavy rain, lightning, and slow-moving storms that can do 2 to 3 inches an hour. If they sit in one spot for a few hours, that’s how we end up with uh-ohs.
THURSDAY
By early Thursday, storms stretch from DFW and Sherman southwest through Brownwood, just west of Killeen, Fredericksburg, Kerrville and Del Rio. We’ll be watching the Hill Country carefully given how much moisture is around. No, I’m not saying this is a repeat of the last two Julys. We’re all just paying close attention.
Rain continues near I-35 Thursday and Friday, with some chances through the weekend.
THE SETUP & A FALSE FALL
A slow-moving upper-level low drives all of this. It finally leaves Friday, but there’s no high pressure behind it to shut the rain off. A weak Pacific front knocks temperatures down late week and gives us a false fall preview. I say false because I’m sure it’ll get hot again at some point.
Hurricane Polo made landfall in Mexico today, and its moisture only adds fuel for heavy rain.
FLOOD RISK
Tonight: Level 3 of 4 for the western Panhandle, Amarillo, West Texas, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Borderland.
Wednesday into Thursday morning: Level 3 for Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, including Wichita Falls, Abilene, San Angelo, Kerrville and Del Rio.
Thursday: Level 3 from Sherman, Gainesville and DFW down through Fort Hood, Georgetown, Austin, Brownwood, Llano, Mason, Fredericksburg, Kerrville and San Antonio to Pearsall, Eagle Pass and Laredo.
Friday: isolated flooding across the southeastern half. Saturday: southeast of a line from Del Rio to Austin, Bryan-College Station, Longview and Texarkana.
HOW MUCH RAIN
Through Sunday evening, the eastern two-thirds looks at 1 to 5 inches, and some folks get double that. The spots that pick up 5 to 9 inches or more are where flooding is most likely. If you get 3 or 4 inches spread over a day, you’ll mostly be fine. Bone-dry soils may not soak it up quickly at first. The Panhandle and West Texas get a good rain too.
SEVERE RISK
Wednesday: damaging winds and hail across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Permian Basin and Concho Valley. Thursday: isolated severe storms from Texoma and North Texas through Central Texas, the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau and South Texas.
Turn around, don’t drown.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Severe Storms Hit the Panhandle
0:41 What’s Ahead This Week
1:10 Tonight: Heavy Rain Out West
1:48 Wednesday Morning Storms
2:16 A Midday Break Wednesday
2:29 Wednesday Afternoon Severe Storms
2:52 Wednesday Night Heavy Rain
3:19 Thursday: DFW to the Hill Country
4:07 Friday & the Weekend
4:27 The Setup & a False Fall
5:11 Tonight’s Flood Risk
5:44 Wednesday’s Flood Risk
6:12 Thursday’s Flood Risk
6:37 Friday & Saturday Flood Risk
6:54 Five-Day Rain Totals
7:47 Severe Risk Wednesday & Thursday
8:09 Cooler Temperatures
8:48 Live Coverage Tonight
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌩️ LIVE RADAR:
https://texasstormchasers.com/radar
📲 FREE Weather App:
https://texasweather.app/
🔗 Website, tornado alert phone calls, photo gallery & socials:
https://www.Linktr.ee/texasstormchasers
⭐ Join this channel for perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoIfgmxArIATc2EpHD3W9EA/join
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Texas Storm Chasers has been covering Texas weather since 2009.
#TexasWeather #txwx #FlashFlood #wtxwx #ctxwx