Storms move east across Texas tonight with heavy rain, flooding risk and a few rowdy storms from the Big Country into the Hill Country. Then this weekend, Texas finally feels like fall, with highs in the 70s and 80s statewide by Sunday.
Live radar: https://texasstormchasers.com/radar
Texas Weather Roundup, Wednesday afternoon, September 30, 2026. Another update around 6 to 6:30 PM unless we’re live with storms.
LAST NIGHT & TODAY
Last night in the Panhandle overperformed big time, with six tornado warnings at once. Good news, Panhandle: y’all settle down today as a dry slot moves in.
Storms get more numerous this afternoon, but most of it holds off until tonight across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau. Then a big, slow-moving line or cluster crawls east through western North Texas, Texoma, the Concho Valley and into the Hill Country, reaching near I-35 Thursday morning.
Because it’s so slow, some storms will put down 2 to 3 inches an hour. Some folks could see 5 or 6 inches tonight, and that’s where flash flooding is the biggest concern.
SEVERE RISK TONIGHT
Scattered severe storms are possible tonight into Thursday morning across Northwest Texas, the Big Country, Permian Basin, Concho Valley and Hill Country. Damaging straight-line winds over 60 mph are the main threat, plus pocket-change hail. A brief tornado or two can’t be ruled out. We’ll be watching closely after last night.
FLOOD RISK
Tonight into early Thursday: western North Texas, Northwest Texas, Texoma, the Big Country, Concho Valley, Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Polo’s remnants got pulled into this storm system, so there’s a lot of moisture for clouds to squeeze out. Localized pockets of 3 to 6 inches in a few hours are possible, maybe more in a spot or two. Most folks won’t get that much.
Thursday into Friday morning: the risk shifts east into North Texas, Northeast Texas, the Brazos Valley, Central Texas, South Texas, the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. After tonight’s rain, soils will be saturated, so it won’t take as much to cause problems.
Friday: isolated to scattered flooding across the southeastern half. Saturday: the Golden Triangle, upper coast, Piney Woods and Toledo Bend.
HOW MUCH RAIN
Through Monday morning, some spots pick up 5 to 7 inches or more. It won’t be as widespread as the map makes it look, and plenty of folks will get less. After tonight, this is mostly an eastern-half issue.
For most of y’all, this is a good rain we badly need. Pretty colored maps get everybody hyping floods, and we’ll tell you about that hazard, but let’s not forget the good part.
FINALLY FEELS LIKE FALL
Still hot today: 105 in Zapata, 102 in McAllen, 96 in San Antonio, 93 in Fort Worth.
Friday highs: 66 in Dalhart and Amarillo, 71 in Lubbock, 80 in Abilene and San Angelo, 82 in DFW and San Antonio, 84 in Austin.
Saturday morning: 46 in Dalhart, 51 in Amarillo, 50s in the Permian Basin and West Texas, 60s in DFW, Waco and Kerrville.
Saturday football forecast: 78 in Fort Worth, 80 in Kerrville, 84 in Austin, 82 in San Antonio, 86 in Houston. That beats 100.
Sunday: 40s in the Panhandle to start, then highs in the 70s and 80s across all of Texas.
KEEPING IT REALISTIC
We will have issues. I don’t want this to sound like nothing’s happening. But it’s not a holy moly guacamole, the-whole-state-floods situation. It’ll be in corridors. Most of y’all get an inch or a few. Some get a lot more, and that’s where flooding happens.
Turn around, don’t drown.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Storms Move East Today
0:55 Hour by Hour
1:07 Last Night Overperformed
1:49 Storms Tonight Into Thursday
2:26 2 to 3 Inches an Hour
2:56 Severe Risk Tonight
3:56 Tonight’s Flood Risk
4:49 Most Folks Get Beneficial Rain
5:04 Thursday’s Flood Risk
5:43 Friday & Saturday Flood Risk
6:05 Five-Day Rain Totals
6:45 Friday & the Weekend
7:19 Cooler Temps Arrive
7:54 Friday Morning