Flood risk tonight for San Antonio, Austin and parts of Central Texas. Storms could stall along a front tonight and drop 5 to 10 inches of rain in about three hours where they set up. Then fall weather finally arrives this weekend.
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Texas Weather Roundup lunchtime update, Thursday, October 1, 2026.
THIS AFTERNOON
A Pacific cool front already brought rain and cooler air to the western half of Texas. Now it’s the eastern half’s turn. Storms are moving through DFW, Waco, Austin, the eastern Hill Country and into San Antonio, with pop-ups in Southeast and East Texas. There’s no official severe outlook today. This is a rain setup. Localized flash flooding is possible this afternoon.
Out west, it’s clearing out and looks like a beautiful day.
By early evening, the main line moves into the Brazos Valley, East Texas and the Ark-La-Tex, giving DFW, Waco, Austin and San Antonio a break.
TONIGHT’S CONCERN
This is the part I’m worried about. Around 10 PM, new storms start developing along that now-stalled front near Austin and San Antonio, the far eastern Hill Country, and South Central and Central Texas, possibly up into DFW.
And they don’t move. There’s decent model support for that, and if it happens, we’ll get obnoxiously heavy rain and flooding.
Wherever that sets up, 5 to 10 inches of rain in about three to six hours is possible. A good chunk of guidance puts it around Bexar County, maybe toward Austin, with some heavier storms in parts of North Texas too. I’m concerned tonight is the night somebody gets double-digit rain totals.
This is localized, not widespread. But where it happens, the flooding risk is substantial. Earlier this week I said most folks get beneficial rain and a few get too much. Tonight is the “way too much rain in a small area” night.
Flooded roads are hard to see after dark. If water’s over the road, turn around.
FRIDAY & THE WEEKEND
Tonight’s round weakens after sunrise Friday. After that, it’s scattered pop-ups across the eastern half, which could still cause localized flooding on soaked ground. Saturday’s risk shrinks to the Golden Triangle, the upper coast, Southeast Texas, the Piney Woods and down the coast to the Rio Grande Valley.
Next week looks quieter for most of Texas, with pleasant temperatures and not many rain chances.
FINALLY FEELS LIKE FALL
Friday highs: 60s in West Texas and the Panhandle, and right around 80 for DFW, Waco, Austin and San Antonio.
Saturday morning: 44 in Dalhart, 48 in Amarillo, 55 in Lubbock, 59 in San Angelo and Wichita Falls, 66 in Fort Worth. Time to get out the fall attire. Saturday highs reach 75 in San Angelo and 77 in Fort Worth, with mostly 70s across the northwestern half of the state.
Sunday and Monday: 70s and 80s across all of Texas. Not a single 90 on the map.
Are we done with summer? Maybe not for good, but we might be done with the triple digits.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Rain, Storms & a Taste of Fall
0:47 The Pacific Cool Front
1:20 This Afternoon: Storms Along I-35
2:03 A Break This Evening
2:49 Tonight’s Concern: Storms That Don’t Move
3:46 5 to 10 Inches in 3 Hours
4:00 Where It Could Set Up
4:22 Why Tonight Is Different
4:48 Friday: Scattered Storms
5:15 Flash Flood Outlook
6:35 The Weekend & Next Week
7:13 Today’s Temperatures
7:37 Friday Morning Lows
8:01 Friday Highs
8:30 Saturday Morning Lows
9:15 Saturday Highs
9:34 Sunday & Next Week
10:06 Are We Done With Summer?
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