Overnight flood risk for Houston, San Antonio, Austin and parts of South and Central Texas. Slow-moving heavy rain is pushing into Harris County now, and pockets of 3+ inches an hour are possible overnight into Friday morning.
Live radar: https://texasstormchasers.com/radar
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Texas Weather Roundup evening update, Thursday, October 1, 2026.
RIGHT NOW
Heavy rain is moving through Southeast Texas, the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and South Texas. I’m particularly concerned about the slow-moving activity pushing into Harris County. Some short-range guidance shows more than 5 inches by 11 PM in spots, which would spread the flooding threat into the Houston metro over the next few hours.
A severe storm is also crossing I-37 near Mathis and Sinton with 60 mph winds and heavy rain.
Along and west of I-35 is quiet right now, even around Bexar County. But new storms are starting to develop in the San Antonio metro. In the Rio Grande Valley, a line through McAllen, Edinburg and up to Linn is moving southeast down I-2 toward I-69E with heavy rain.
OVERNIGHT
Big disclaimer: the short-range models are not handling this well. Every hourly run is a little different.
The consistent message is that pockets of very heavy rain will keep developing overnight into Friday morning across South Texas, South Central and Central Texas, the eastern Hill Country, the Brazos Valley, Southeast Texas and maybe parts of North Texas.
Some storms could drop 3+ inches an hour, and a few spots could get that for several hours. That’s how you get rapid-onset flooding. We’re especially watching San Antonio, Austin, Houston, Bryan-College Station, and possibly southeast of DFW. Those are possibilities, not guarantees.
I can’t pin this down to a county or a time. Nobody can tonight. But some folks will deal with flooding overnight.
MOST FOLKS WON’T FLOOD
Most of y’all won’t deal with this tonight. But if you’re under one of these storms, take it seriously. Flooded roads are hard to see after dark. If water’s over the road, turn around.
FRIDAY
Isolated to scattered storms across the southeastern half of Texas, less widespread than the last few days.
We’ll be watching overnight with live radar, warnings and river flood info on our 24/7 stream.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Overnight Flood Risk
0:39 Heavy Rain Moving Into Houston
1:12 Severe Storm Near Mathis & Sinton
1:24 San Antonio & the Rio Grande Valley
1:52 Why the Models Are Struggling
2:05 Where Heavy Rain Could Set Up
2:47 Metro Areas We’re Watching
3:27 Most Folks Won’t Flood
3:38 How to Stay Updated
4:01 Friday
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