Fall has arrived in Texas, with highs only in the 50s in the Panhandle today. Rain shifts southeast toward the coast this weekend, and next week looks dry and downright pleasant for most of the state.
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Texas Weather Roundup, Friday, October 2, 2026.
A TOUGH FORECAST WEEK
This was not an easy week to forecast, and plenty didn’t go the way we expected. You live, you learn, you do better next time.
TODAY
A Pacific cool front is slowly sliding southeast. Rain continues along I-35 and Highway 281 from the eastern Hill Country up into North Texas, plus parts of the Big Country this afternoon.
There’s still a lot of tropical moisture along and southeast of that front, so the heaviest showers can drop 1 to 3 inches an hour. On already-soaked ground, that means more flooding risk. WPC has isolated to scattered flash flooding possible near the front, from 281 and I-35 west into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, and south into the Rio Grande Plains.
TONIGHT & SATURDAY
It stays wet across the eastern Hill Country, Edwards Plateau and parts of North Texas into Saturday morning, with storms in the Rio Grande Valley and along the coast.
Saturday afternoon, new storms develop near the coast, from the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains through South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley to the Golden Triangle. Farther northwest, it’s lighter rain and much cooler. Those of y’all at Oktoberfest in Fredericksburg will enjoy that.
SATURDAY NIGHT & SUNDAY
The heavier rain concentrates along the Gulf Coast, especially the lower coast and Rio Grande Valley, and maybe the Golden Triangle. Some spots there could see 5+ inches with a flooding risk. It’s been pretty dry down there, so outside of short-term and urban flooding, y’all can mostly take it.
Elsewhere, pockets of the Hill Country, North Texas, Central Texas and the Brazos Valley could pick up another 1 to 3 inches. Widespread flooding doesn’t look likely.
A DRY WEEK AHEAD
The big upper-level storm system is gone. By Sunday and Monday, rain is mostly confined to the coast and the Rio Grande Valley. Tuesday through Friday, nearly all of Texas looks dry, though wet ground could mean some morning fog.
FALL HAS ARRIVED
Today: 59 in Amarillo, 62 in Lubbock, 75 in El Paso, 80 in DFW.
Tonight: 46 in Dalhart, 50 in Amarillo, 57 in Lubbock, 59 in Midland and El Paso, 60 in San Angelo and Wichita Falls, 68 in DFW and Waco.
Saturday: 70s to upper 80s for most of Texas. Sunday: 70s and 80s statewide. Monday: mostly 80s, and not a single 90 on the map.
Tuesday morning: 50s and 60s across the northern two-thirds. Tuesday afternoon: mostly 80s.
LONG-RANGE
For October 7th through the 11th, CPC leans dry for the northern half, with rain chances possibly ticking up in the southeastern half late next week. Above-average temperatures start creeping back late next week, but nothing ridiculously hot. Enjoy the first real taste of fall.
We’ll probably have a video tomorrow for the weekend.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Rain Shifts Southeast
0:46 A Tough Forecast Week
0:59 Today: Rain Along I-35 & 281
1:44 Tonight & Saturday
2:42 Saturday Night & Sunday on the Coast
3:04 Flash Flood Outlook
3:47 The Pattern Next Week
4:31 A Dry Week Ahead
4:58 Rain Totals
5:59 Highs in the 50s Today
6:19 Tonight’s Lows
6:44 Saturday & Sunday
7:12 Monday & Tuesday
7:35 Long-Range Outlook
8:19 Member Shoutouts
9:06 Weekend Updates
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