A Gulf tropical system in the Bay of Campeche now has a 70% chance of development, but it likely stays east of Texas. Meanwhile, fall weather settles in this week, with today’s highs looking like July’s lows.
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Texas Weather Roundup, Monday, October 5, 2026.
A QUIET FEW DAYS
After last week’s rain and our first real fall front, we get a break. The next two to three days look spectacular for most of Texas, with cool mornings and sweater weather for some of y’all on early starts.
Rain chances stick to the Rio Grande Valley and lower coast today, plus maybe an isolated shower around the Davis Mountains, Marfa, Alpine and Fort Stockton. Tuesday, it’s mainly the Rio Grande Valley and the coast.
TROPICS: BAY OF CAMPECHE
The National Hurricane Center has a 70% chance of development over the next seven days for a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
Normally that would have my full attention. But right now I’m seeing very little data supporting a direct landfall in Texas. The more likely path is a little east, then north, making it more of an issue for Louisiana, Mississippi, maybe Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. That can still change.
Even without a direct hit, expect higher rip current danger, some high tide issues along the Texas coast, and more moisture across southern and southeastern Texas this week. It may become a named system, and we’ll keep watching it closely.
LATER THIS WEEK
By midweek, a little upper-level lift over the southern half of the state could bring back scattered showers and storms. Isolated heavy rain and spotty flooding are possible Wednesday in the Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley, Thursday along the immediate coast, and Friday into the western Hill Country, Edwards Plateau and southern Permian Basin.
The northern half of Texas stays dry. The lower coast and Rio Grande Valley could pick up several inches over the next several days.
In about a week, there are signs of a bigger pattern shift out West. We’ll see what that means for us.
HIGHS LOOK LIKE JULY’S LOWS
Today: 70s and 80s statewide, maybe near 90 in Del Rio, Eagle Pass and Laredo. This is what our low temperature maps looked like in July and August.
Tonight: 50s and 60s across the northern half, with 60s almost down to I-10. The southern third stays in the 70s.
Tuesday: mostly 80s. Wednesday: mid-90s back in the Big Country, Northwest Texas and Concho Valley. Thursday: 80s to low 90s. Friday: a few degrees cooler again.
LONG-RANGE
CPC leans above average for this weekend into early next week. But average in mid-October is a lot lower than average in mid-August, so that likely means more of the same: mid to upper 80s, maybe a few low 90s. Rain chances may tick up in the southeastern half.
Enjoy it. It actually feels like fall.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Fall Weather & Gulf Mischief
0:46 A Quiet Few Days
1:08 Hour by Hour: Quiet Skies
1:49 Rain Chances Today & Tuesday
2:32 The Pattern This Week
3:31 Tropics: Bay of Campeche
4:48 Rain Chances Later This Week
5:19 Flood Risk Wednesday Through Friday
5:58 Rain Totals
6:28 Highs Look Like July’s Lows
6:52 Tonight’s Lows
7:05 Tuesday Through Friday
7:49 Long-Range Outlook
8:30 Wrap-Up
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