The Gulf tropical system could become a hurricane before landfall this weekend somewhere from eastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Texas mostly misses it. Here, it’s a dry, warm week with cool nights.
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Texas Weather Roundup, Tuesday, October 6, 2026.
PLEASANT DAYS, COOL NIGHTS
This week is much calmer than last week. Days are warm, but with that tropical moisture gone, nights finally cool off.
The exception is the Rio Grande Valley, where showers and storms continue today and tomorrow. Locally heavy rain is possible, though most of it stays offshore. Elsewhere, maybe a rogue shower in the Big Bend or far West Texas.
THE GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM
A tropical system is developing in the northern Bay of Campeche. It moves east the next few days, then turns north. Model guidance is pretty aggressive, showing it becoming a tropical storm and then a hurricane before landfall this weekend somewhere in eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or the Florida Panhandle.
Significant impacts are possible there, including storm surge, strong winds, inland flooding and tornadoes, mainly along and east of where the center comes ashore.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR TEXAS
It should be far enough east that inland Texas sees very little impact. Along our coast, expect dangerous rip currents this week and possibly some coastal flooding at high tide. Otherwise, for Texas, this is not going to be a story.
FIRE DANGER IS DOWN
Thanks to last week’s rain, most of the state is back to Low fire danger. The exception is Moderate to locally High in the Toledo Bend area, the Piney Woods and the Ark-La-Tex through Thursday.
NEXT WEEK
The next five or six days stay quiet. Being on the west side of that Gulf system may even help pull in some less humid air.
Next week, the jet stream gets more active. Moisture from Hurricane Rachel in the eastern Pacific could get picked up, a little like what happened last week. It’s too early for specifics, but rain chances could return to western Texas early next week. Fall severe weather season kicked off last week, and with El Niño, it’s not done.
TEMPERATURES
Today: 80s and 90s for most of Texas. Warm for October, but after the last three months, nobody’s complaining.
Tonight: upper 50s to low 60s across the northern two-thirds, upper 60s to mid 70s in the southern third.
Wednesday through Friday: more of the same. Saturday: mostly 80s, with a few low to mid 90s in Northwest and South Texas, and Saturday morning lows in the 50s and 60s.
Warm days, cool nights. That’s one of the things we love about fall in Texas.
Through next Tuesday morning, most of the state stays dry. CPC leans warm for next week, with equal to slightly above-average rain chances.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Dry Week & Gulf Mischief
0:42 Pleasant Days, Cool Nights
1:09 Rain in the Rio Grande Valley
1:34 The Gulf Tropical System
2:23 What It Means for Texas
2:42 Fire Danger Is Down
3:08 The Pattern This Week
3:39 Next Week: A Busier Pattern?
4:31 Model Radar Through Next Week
5:07 Today’s Highs
5:31 Tonight’s Lows
5:49 Rest of the Week
6:14 Saturday Morning Lows
6:30 Seven-Day Rain
7:02 Next Week’s Outlook
7:24 Wrap-Up
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