Summer heat returns to Texas next week. Our false fall is ending, with mid-90s and muggy air coming back, while the Gulf hurricane makes landfall well east of us near Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
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Texas Weather Roundup, Thursday, October 8, 2026.
THE GULF HURRICANE
The hurricane began turning northeast this afternoon and turns north tonight into Friday, likely making landfall on the Alabama or Florida Panhandle coast. Where it comes ashore, and especially east of that, expect storm surge, damaging winds, tornadoes and very heavy rain. Saturday it moves north across Alabama, with tropical storm force winds reaching as far as I-20/59 near Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR TEXAS
No direct impacts here. Along our coast, expect higher tides, dangerous rip currents and rough conditions if you’re out on a boat. Sinking air on the west side of the storm keeps us drier and a bit warmer this weekend.
FALSE FALL IS ENDING
The next couple of days are sunny, warm and still fairly dry, with maybe a few showers in the lower coast and Rio Grande Valley this afternoon.
That changes this weekend into next week. Humidity comes back in a big way, and summer of no return returns. Surprise. It’s never a good idea to count summer out before Halloween.
FIRE DANGER
High fire danger today in the Piney Woods, around Toledo Bend, in the Ark-La-Tex and parts of Southeast Texas. Friday, it climbs to Very High in those same areas. After about a week of dry weather, Moderate returns to Northwest Texas, the Concho Valley, Big Country and eastern Panhandle by Saturday.
DROUGHT MONITOR
Last week’s rain helped, but more than 80% of Texas is still officially in drought, D1 through D4. It rained. It’s still a drought.
We don’t show D0, abnormally dry, on our drought maps because it doesn’t officially count as drought, and we figured it might confuse folks. Some of y’all have said we should include it. Let us know what you think in the comments.
NEXT WEEK
This weekend stays quiet. Next week, a potent upper-level trough moves in from the west, though recent data has slowed it down. We’re also watching what’s going to become Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific. We dealt with Polo a couple of weeks ago, so now it’s Simon Says. Whether Simon says we get rain is to be determined.
Rain chances return to the western third early next week, with maybe some light rain near the coast. The eastern two-thirds stays mostly dry until later in the week. Thursday through Saturday of next week looks more active, with a stronger cold front possible if the data holds.
The whole state gets a big jump in humidity next week. It’s going to feel like Florida.
TEMPERATURES
Today: 80s and 90s. Enjoy it.
This weekend: still pleasant overnight, with upper 50s and 60s across the northern half. Saturday highs run upper 80s to mid 90s and dry.
Sunday: mid to upper 90s in Northwest Texas, the Big Country, South Texas and the Edwards Plateau.
Monday: lows back in the 70s for much of the state, then highs of 95 in Abilene, Big Spring, Childress, Del Rio and Eagle Pass, and 96 in Laredo. DFW, Austin, San Antonio and Houston are back in the 90s with obnoxious humidity, and heat index values could top 100 for some folks next week.
Summer weather fans, you’ll like the first half of next week. The rest of us are hoping for that cold front around Friday.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Hurricane Heads East, Summer Returns
0:53 The Gulf Hurricane
1:28 Saturday: Inland Alabama
1:47 What It Means for Texas
2:11 Hour by Hour
2:46 False Fall Is Ending
3:29 Fire Danger
4:20 Drought Monitor: Still 80%+
4:41 Should We Show D0?
5:10 The Pattern Next Week
5:37 Hurricane Simon
6:10 Humidity Is Back
6:56 Model Radar Next Week
7:46 Seven-Day Rain
8:14 Today’s Highs
8:29 Friday Morning
8:41 Weekend Temperatures
9:17 Sunday & Monday
9:54 Heat Index Over 100
10:08 Long-Range Outlook
10:37 Wrap-Up
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