A big cold front brings Texas its coolest air of the season this weekend, with frost possible in the Panhandle Saturday morning. First, near-record heat and July humidity, plus heavy rain and storms out west.
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Texas Weather Roundup, Monday, October 12, 2026.
JULY IN OCTOBER
Mid-October is here and it feels like July. If you’ve stepped outside, you know the humidity is already back across the southeastern half of the state, and it stays obnoxious for the next few days.
The eastern two-thirds stays mostly dry, with some morning drizzle and low clouds. The western third gets storms Tuesday through Thursday.
STORMS OUT WEST
Tuesday afternoon into evening, after about 4 PM, SPC has scattered severe storms possible in the eastern Panhandle and Northwest Texas, with isolated severe storms south into West Texas, the Permian Basin and Big Bend. The strongest could produce large hail and damaging straight-line winds. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out, especially with any supercells still going after about 6 or 7 PM.
Wednesday, isolated severe storms are possible again from the Panhandle down to the Big Bend.
FLOOD RISK
Wednesday the radar lights up like a Christmas tree, with widespread rain across the Permian Basin, Big Bend, West Texas and parts of the Panhandle. By Wednesday night, we’re concerned about training storms moving north-northeast over the same areas. Thursday the risk spreads east into Texoma, North Texas, the Big Country and the Concho Valley. Friday it settles down.
Through Saturday morning, WPC has a corridor of 3 to 6 inches out west, with most folks around 1 to 4 and some spots over 6. That would put a real dent in the drought. But some of it will fall too fast, so expect flooded fields and roads and rising creeks.
WHY THIS IS HAPPENING
Moisture from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific is getting pulled north by an upper-level storm system over the Southwest. Add the Gulf moisture our south winds are already pumping in, and a slow-moving system with several waves of lift, and you get multiple rounds of heavy rain.
FIRE DANGER
Moderate to High today across the Big Country, Northwest Texas, North Texas, the Ark-La-Tex and East Texas. Low to Moderate Tuesday, with pockets of higher fire danger in the eastern third Wednesday.
NEAR-RECORD HEAT
Today: 90s across almost all of Texas and 100 in Laredo and Zapata on October 12th. Heat index values could top 100 in spots. Tonight: mid to upper 70s across the eastern two-thirds and low 80s on the coast.
Tuesday could set records for some. 95 in DFW, Austin and San Antonio, 98 in Abilene, Del Rio and Eagle Pass, 100 in Laredo and Zapata, and 91 in Houston with a heat index near 100.
THE COLD FRONT
A strong cold front moves through all of Texas Thursday into Friday, bringing probably the coolest air of the season so far.
Friday highs may come in the morning before temperatures fall, so Austin’s 82 could happen around lunchtime. Friday highs: 73 in Fort Worth, 69 in Wichita Falls, 59 in Amarillo and 55 in Alpine.
Saturday morning: 35 in Dalhart, with frost possible and maybe even a freeze in the northern Panhandle. Also 41 in Amarillo, 48 in Wichita Falls, 53 in Kerrville with some 40s in the Hill Country, 55 in Fort Worth, 60 in Austin and 66 in Houston. Sweater weather.
Saturday highs: 60s across the western half, 71 in DFW and Waco, 75 in Austin and San Antonio, 77 in Houston. Sunday morning brings 40s across the western half with a few 30s, 53 in DFW and 60 in Houston.
It’s finally going to feel like fall.
CHAPTERS
0:00 July in October
0:40 Heat, Storms & a Cold Front
1:18 Hour by Hour
1:50 Storms Out West Tuesday
2:13 Heavy Rain Wednesday
2:33 Tuesday Severe Risk
3:18 Wednesday Severe Risk
3:34 Flood Risk
4:25 Thursday & Friday Flood Risk
4:47 Why: Hurricane Simon’s Moisture
5:52 A Strong Cold Front Arrives
6:15 Model Radar
6:49 Rain Totals: 3-6 Inches
7:51 Fire Danger
8:19 Today’s Heat
8:44 Muggy Tonight
9:17 Near-Record Heat Tuesday
9:46 Wednesday
10:08 Thursday: The Front Arrives
10:37 Friday Morning Lows
10:54 Friday: Falling Temps
11:36 Saturday Morning: Frost?
12:31 Saturday Highs
13:02 Sunday Morning
13:39 Long-Range Outlook
13:58 Wrap-Up
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