Tennis ball hail and 80 mph winds are possible in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas tonight. Then heavy rain out west, and a strong cold front brings fall to all of Texas this weekend.
Live radar: https://texasstormchasers.com/radar
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Texas Weather Roundup, Tuesday, October 13, 2026.
SEVERE RISK TONIGHT
After about 4 PM through late evening, SPC has isolated to scattered severe storms from the Big Bend and Permian Basin up through West Texas, with a corridor of scattered severe storms across the eastern Panhandle east of I-27 and into Northwest Texas.
The strongest storms could produce very large hail up to tennis ball size and damaging winds up to 80 mph. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out, but that’s secondary to the hail and wind. A severe weather watch will probably be issued for parts of the Panhandle, West Texas and Northwest Texas later today.
If you can, get your car in the garage this afternoon.
HEAVY RAIN
Heavy rain is possible tonight across Northwest Texas, the Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin and Big Bend. A few storms are also possible in the Golden Triangle this afternoon.
Wednesday, isolated severe storms with hail and damaging winds stay possible south of a slow-moving front across Northwest Texas, West Texas, the Permian Basin and Big Bend. Heavy rain becomes the main issue Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
WHY
A slow-moving upper-level low sits over the Southwest, and moisture from Hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific is feeding into an already very humid Texas. Not the hurricane itself, just its moisture. Whatever storms we get will be efficient rain producers.
FLOOD RISK & RAIN TOTALS
Wednesday through Friday, the heavy rain axis stays stuck from Northwest Texas through the Big Country, Concho Valley and Permian Basin. Thursday, scattered flash flooding is possible from the Big Bend through the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, Hill Country, West Texas and Northwest Texas, mostly along and west of Highway 281.
Most folks in that corridor get 1 to 4 inches, with localized totals over 5 and some spots several inches higher. Expect flooded roads and rising creeks, with river flooding possible this weekend into next week. The eastern half of Texas mostly gets a tenth to a quarter of an inch at best.
FIRE DANGER
Low to Moderate today, slightly elevated from the Big Country into South Texas. Wednesday, watch the Golden Triangle, Piney Woods and Northeast Texas. Most of the state is Low by Thursday.
THE HEAT, THEN THE FRONT
Today: 100 in Laredo and Zapata, 95 in San Antonio, Austin, San Angelo and Abilene. Tonight: upper 70s across the eastern half, with some low 80s. That’s August, not mid-October.
A strong cold front moves through all of Texas Thursday night into Friday, even the Rio Grande Valley.
Friday highs: 50s in the Panhandle with wind chills in the 40s, 60 in Lubbock, 68 in Abilene and Wichita Falls, 70s in DFW falling into the 60s late, 80 in Austin, 82 in San Antonio. Houston’s 87 may come early before temperatures drop.
Saturday morning: 35 in Dalhart and 39 in Amarillo and Pampa. I’m concerned about frost in the Panhandle, and parts of the northern Panhandle could get near freezing. 44 in Lubbock, 40s in Wichita Falls, Abilene and San Angelo, probably 40s in the Hill Country, 51 in Kerrville, 60 in San Antonio, 66 in Houston.
Saturday highs: 60s across the western 40% of Texas, mostly 70s elsewhere. Sunday morning: 40s and 50s for most of us, 57 in Beaumont.
Next week warms back up, but warm for late October means 80s, not triple digits. The pattern stays active.
LIVE COVERAGE PLAN
If storms start producing tennis ball hail and 70 to 80 mph winds, or if tornado warnings go up, we’ll go live. Otherwise, we’ll post frequent updates on social media. The 24/7 live stream is back online.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Storms Out West, Cold Front Coming
0:46 Severe Risk Tonight
1:14 Tennis Ball Hail & 80 MPH Winds
1:35 Watch Likely Later Today
1:56 Heavy Rain Tonight
2:11 Wednesday’s Severe & Flood Risk
2:44 Hour by Hour
3:38 Wednesday Into Thursday
4:00 Why: Simon’s Moisture
4:51 The Cold Front
5:26 Model Radar
6:09 Flash Flood Outlook
6:50 Rain Totals
8:04 Fire Danger
8:38 Today’s Heat
8:59 Muggy Tonight
9:32 Wednesday & Thursday
10:08 Friday Morning
10:30 Friday: Falling Temps
11:13 Saturday Morning: Frost?
11:46 Saturday Highs
12:07 Sunday Morning
12:33 Next Week
13:03 Live Coverage Plan
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