Crashy the Cold Front is long gone, and Texas is warming back up. South winds and a little more humidity are back this week. Most of the state stays dry, but rain chances creep back into West Texas by Thursday and Friday thanks to moisture from the eastern Pacific. It’s your Monday, Oct. 19 Texas Weather Roundup with Baldy-in-Chief David Reimer.
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THIS WEEK ACROSS TEXAS
North Texas and DFW: Dry and warming. Fort Worth around 80 on Tuesday, then a couple more degrees each day through Thursday.
Central Texas, the Hill Country and I-35: Sunny and warm. Austin near 86 Tuesday, with upper 80s to around 90 possible by Thursday.
South Texas and the Rio Grande Plains: The 90s are back. McAllen, Zapata and Laredo near 91 on Tuesday, and Laredo could hit 95 by Friday. Eagle Pass near 87 Tuesday.
Houston and the Gulf Coast: Houston near 82 Tuesday. A few scattered showers are possible along the coast by Wednesday, but chances are low. The Coastal Bend and Rio Grande Valley could pick up some tropical moisture later in the week.
East Texas and the Piney Woods: Staying dry, with the highest fire danger in the state early this week.
West Texas, the Panhandle, Permian Basin, Big Bend and the Borderland: El Paso near 86 Tuesday, with the Panhandle holding in the 70s. A few showers are possible Tuesday evening in the Panhandle if enough moisture works in. The bigger change comes Thursday through the weekend, when moisture from what will likely become Hurricane Trudy in the eastern Pacific gets pulled north. The Weather Prediction Center highlights locally heavy rain potential Friday and Friday night for the Panhandle, West Texas, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Trans-Pecos. A quarter to half an inch of rain is possible out west, while the heaviest, flood-producing rain looks more likely in Arizona and New Mexico.
FIRE DANGER (Texas A&M Forest Service)
Monday: Moderate to High in the eastern quarter of Texas, Low elsewhere. Low doesn’t mean zero, but most fires should be contained on initial attack.
Tuesday: Moderate along and east of I-35, with higher danger around Toledo Bend Reservoir, the Piney Woods, the Ark-La-Tex and the Golden Triangle.
Wednesday: Mostly Low statewide, with the highest relative danger in the eastern quarter.
THE BIG PICTURE
An upper-level ridge of high pressure keeps the eastern two-thirds of Texas quiet and dry for most of the week. Its grip is weakest in West Texas, which is where the late-week rain chances show up. The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook leans above average on temperatures through the weekend into early next week, with better rain odds west and drier conditions east.
TEMPERATURES
Today: Highs in the mid to upper 70s to mid 80s, with dry air and a nice evening.
Tonight: Lows in the 50s across the northern two-thirds of Texas, 70s in South Texas as Gulf moisture returns.
Thursday: Upper 80s to lower 90s across the southern two-thirds of the state, 70s in the Panhandle. That’s above average for late October.
Friday morning: Upper 50s to 60s for most, 70s along the immediate coast and South Texas.
ABOUT THE EL NIÑO OUTLOOK
If you missed it, our Super El Niño winter outlook is out. Seasonal forecasting is a whole different animal than a seven-day forecast, so Trey walks through what could actually happen and why. The video is on the channel and the full write-up is on the website.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Crashy’s gone, Texas warms up
0:28 Thanks to HTeaO
0:38 Welcome
0:51 Our El Niño winter outlook
1:52 This week’s forecast
2:45 Fire danger
3:30 The big picture: upper-level ridge
4:38 Eastern Pacific moisture heads for West Texas
5:32 Simulated radar
5:55 Rain outlook and 7-day totals
7:03 Today’s highs
7:25 Tonight’s lows
7:39 Warming trend Tuesday to Thursday
8:37 Friday temperatures
9:32 Temperature and rain outlooks
10:27 Wrap-up
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