Rain is headed back to West Texas. A closed upper-level low parks over the southwestern United States late this week, and the Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Borderland have the best rain chances Friday through the weekend, with isolated to scattered flash flooding possible. Some spots could top an inch. The eastern half of Texas stays mostly dry, with fire danger in East Texas. It’s your Wednesday, Oct. 21 Texas Weather Roundup with Baldy-in-Chief David Reimer.
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NORTH TEXAS / DFW
Another nice stretch with light winds. Highs in the 80s today, Thursday and Friday, and 80s again Saturday. Lows tonight mostly in the 50s. Rain chances stay low through the weekend.
CENTRAL TEXAS / HILL COUNTRY / I-35
Highs in the 80s through Saturday with cool nights in the 50s. Moderate fire danger covers the eastern half of the state and is spreading back west into the Hill Country, the Big Country and the Concho Valley, so be careful with anything that throws a spark. Sunday stays in the 70s and 80s.
SOUTH TEXAS / RIO GRANDE PLAINS
A couple of low 90s today, then 80s, with a few low 90s possible in the Rio Grande Plains Saturday. A few light showers could linger into Thursday. Lows tonight in the 60s and 70s. Still mostly 70s and 80s Sunday.
HOUSTON / GULF COAST
A few storms are possible near the Coastal Plains, the Coastal Bend and down into the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight in the 60s and 70s along the coast. Not much rain shows up for the upper coast over the next seven days.
EAST TEXAS / PINEY WOODS
Dry and settled. The Piney Woods, Toledo Bend Reservoir, the Ark-La-Tex and Southeast Texas carry the highest fire danger today, Thursday and Friday. Friday, that risk ticks up a bit in Northeast Texas, East Texas and the Piney Woods. Lows tonight in the 50s.
WEST TEXAS / PANHANDLE / PERMIAN BASIN / BIG BEND / BORDERLAND
Clouds increase tonight and Thursday as storms fire over New Mexico and Arizona. Friday’s highs run a few degrees cooler with rain chances. Saturday: 60s in the Panhandle, 70s in West Texas and the Big Bend, 80s around El Paso and the Trans-Pecos. Sunday’s cool front holds the Panhandle in the low 60s.
FLASH FLOOD RISK
The Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Friday covers the Big Bend, the Borderland, the Trans-Pecos, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Texas-New Mexico state line. Saturday, it moves into the Panhandle, West Texas and the Permian Basin. Sunday keeps a risk of heavier rain over the Panhandle, West Texas, the Permian Basin and Northwest Texas. Isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible. Turn around, don’t drown.
WHY THE WEST GETS THE RAIN
An upper-level ridge over the eastern half of Texas tries to block that upper-level low. How far east the low can push decides how far east the rain goes. Early next week the ridge starts to break down, rain chances spread a little farther east, and a frontal boundary moves through Tuesday or Wednesday.
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK
The Climate Prediction Center leans above average on temperatures into the first few days of November. Rain? Let’s just say it may rain. We need it. And after the rough September we had, it’s nice not seeing upper 90s and triple digits anywhere on the map.
THANK YOU
Thanks for taking time out of your busy day to watch. We love reading where y’all are watching from, so tell us in the comments. We’ll be back tomorrow with your next Texas Weather Roundup.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Rain returns to West Texas
0:24 Thanks to HTeaO
0:42 Clouds and storms out west
0:53 Gulf Coast and South Texas showers
1:16 Friday flash flood risk
1:31 Weekend flash flood risk
1:55 Why the west gets the rain
2:58 Weekend simulated radar
3:17 East Texas fire danger
3:53 7-day rain totals
4:32 Today’s highs, tonight’s lows
5:03 Thursday through Saturday
5:31 Sunday cool front
5:53 Early November outlook
6:13 Wrap-up
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