The rain finally makes it into West Texas. A slow-moving upper-level low over the southwestern United States brings rounds of heavy rain to the Borderland, the Trans-Pecos, the Permian Basin, West Texas and the Panhandle from today into early next week. A good 1 to 2 inches for most folks out west, with 2 to 4 inches possible for a few spots in the Panhandle. Localized flooding and isolated severe storms are possible, while the eastern half of Texas stays dry with fire danger. It’s your Thursday, Oct. 22 Texas Weather Roundup with Baldy-in-Chief David Reimer.
Thanks to HTeaO for supporting today’s Texas Weather Roundup. Texas born and brewed, real tea, real refreshing.
📲 Free Texas weather app: https://texasweather.app/
🔗 Everything Texas Storm Chasers: https://www.Linktr.ee/texasstormchasers
⭐ Become a channel member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoIfgmxArIATc2EpHD3W9EA/join
NORTH TEXAS / DFW
Dry for at least the next five days. Highs in the 80s today through the weekend and into Monday, with lows in the 50s and 60s. Fire danger climbs a little higher on Friday.
CENTRAL TEXAS / HILL COUNTRY / I-35
Mostly 80s through Saturday, then 70s and 80s Sunday and 70s in the Hill Country on Monday. Fire danger rises Friday in Central Texas and the Big Country, and the Brazos Valley sees High fire danger today.
SOUTH TEXAS / RIO GRANDE PLAINS
A few showers in the Rio Grande Valley today. Highs in the 80s, with a few low 90s possible around Laredo and Zapata on Saturday. Rain chances could tick up in South Texas and along the coast by the middle of next week.
HOUSTON / GULF COAST
A few showers along the lower Texas Gulf Coast today. The upper coast stays mostly dry, with no substantial rain in the five-day forecast for the eastern half of the state.
EAST TEXAS / PINEY WOODS
High fire danger today in the Piney Woods, the Toledo Bend Reservoir, Northeast Texas and Southeast Texas. The fire danger stays concentrated across the eastern third of Texas on Saturday. Dry for at least the next five days.
WEST TEXAS / PANHANDLE / PERMIAN BASIN / BIG BEND / BORDERLAND
Rain starts in El Paso this afternoon and evening and continues into the weekend. Friday’s rain stays in the Borderland, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Trans-Pecos. Friday night into Saturday morning it spreads into West Texas, the South Plains, the Rolling Plains and the Panhandle. Panhandle highs drop into the 60s Sunday and Monday with rain.
FLOOD RISK
The Weather Prediction Center’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Friday covers the Borderland, the Guadalupe Mountains and the Trans-Pecos, from Van Horn west through El Paso, with isolated to scattered rapid-onset flooding possible. Saturday it expands into the Panhandle, along the Texas-New Mexico state line, the Big Bend and the western Permian Basin. Sunday focuses on the Panhandle, West Texas and the Permian Basin, with plenty of tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific. Monday spreads east into the eastern Panhandle, West Central Texas, the Concho Valley, the Big Country and Northwest Texas. Turn around, don’t drown.
SATURDAY SEVERE STORMS
Isolated severe storms are possible Saturday in Far West Texas, from El Paso and the Borderland east into the Guadalupe Mountains and the Trans-Pecos. Hail, localized damaging winds and maybe a brief tornado.
DROUGHT UPDATE
The new drought monitor shows improvement after last week’s rain in the Panhandle and North Texas. The exceptional drought over parts of Dallas County is down several categories. About 70% of Texas is still in drought, down 8% from last week.
WHY THE EAST STAYS DRY
An upper-level ridge sits over the eastern half of Texas through the weekend and blocks the cutoff low out west. That low is detached from the main jet stream, so it lollygags instead of sweeping across the state. The cool front early next week is looking less impressive, too.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Rain out west, fire danger, cold front?
0:26 Thanks to HTeaO
0:44 Changes coming out west
1:09 Next two days: HRRR model
1:50 Fire danger
2:22 Friday and Saturday flood risk
2:59 Why the east stays dry
4:21 Simulated radar into next week
4:53 Sunday and Monday flood risk
5:27 Saturday severe storms
5:43 5-day rain totals
6:22 Drought monitor update
7:12 Today’s highs, tonight’s lows
7:42 Friday and Saturday
8:17 Sunday and Monday
8:48 Early November outlook
9:27 Wrap-up
Texas Storm Chasers has covered Texas weather since 2009. Get your local forecast, interactive radar and daily Texas Weather Roundups free in the Texas Storm Chasers app.
#TexasWeather #txwx #TexasRain #wtxwx #etxwx