Most of Texas stays dry under a stubborn upper-level ridge, but Far West Texas is a different story. Storms fire around El Paso this evening, then flash flooding and severe storms spread across the western third of the state this weekend, with 1 to 2 inches of rain on average and isolated totals up to 4 inches. Next week’s cold front isn’t looking likely, but the long range is hinting at an active stretch around Halloween. It’s your Friday, Oct. 23 Texas Weather Roundup with Baldy-in-Chief David Reimer.
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NORTH TEXAS / DFW
Mostly dry this weekend with clouds at times and gusty south winds. Lows tonight in the upper 50s, highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s Saturday and the low to mid 80s Sunday. Moderate to locally High fire danger.
CENTRAL TEXAS / HILL COUNTRY / I-35
More of the same: warm afternoons, a drier heat and cool nights in the upper 50s. Fire danger is ticking back up, so be careful with anything that throws a spark.
SOUTH TEXAS / RIO GRANDE PLAINS
Lows tonight in the 70s. A few low 90s around Laredo and Zapata Saturday and a few upper 80s Sunday. Some rain chances could show up near the coast and South Texas early next week.
HOUSTON / GULF COAST
Lows in the 70s along the coast and upper 50s in the Golden Triangle tonight. Mostly dry this weekend, with just a few light showers possible.
EAST TEXAS / PINEY WOODS
Lows in the low 50s in Northeast Texas and the Ark-La-Tex tonight. Mostly dry, with Moderate to locally High fire danger through Sunday.
WEST TEXAS / PANHANDLE / PERMIAN BASIN / BIG BEND / BORDERLAND
Storms around El Paso and Hudspeth County late this afternoon and evening, plus the Trans-Pecos and the Guadalupe Mountains tonight. Saturday and Sunday the rain covers the western third of Texas, from the Panhandle to the Big Bend. Highs in the 70s to low 80s Saturday, then 60s in the Panhandle and West Texas Sunday and Monday.
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS
Today the Weather Prediction Center highlights the Borderland and the Trans-Pecos for localized flash flooding, and storms around El Paso could bring hail, damaging winds and maybe a tornado. Saturday, scattered flash flooding is possible from the western Panhandle to the Big Bend, the Davis Mountains and the Borderland. Scattered severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening from the Borderland to the western Big Bend, with large hail, localized damaging winds and a brief tornado. Why flooding with only an inch or two? Far West Texas is desert terrain, so its flash flood guidance is much lower than in the eastern half of the state. Turn around, don’t drown.
FIRE DANGER
The Texas A&M Forest Service has Moderate to locally High fire danger across the eastern two-thirds of Texas today, the eastern half through Sunday. Roadside sparks and welding can start grass fires, and gusty south winds help them spread.
AN ACTIVE HALLOWEEN?
The ridge won’t budge, so the storm system lifts toward the central Plains instead of crossing Texas, and next week’s cold front is looking unlikely. The long-range data is hinting at a pattern change late next week with storm chances returning around Halloween.
THANK YOU, MEMBERS
Big thanks to our Spinny Doomer channel members, every subscriber and everyone saying hello in the comments. Next regular video: Monday.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Far West Texas gets active
0:24 Thanks to HTeaO
0:48 The upper-level low moves east
1:06 HRRR: storms out west
1:47 Why the east stays dry
2:09 Today: flash flooding and severe storms
2:38 Saturday: flash flooding and severe storms
3:18 Sunday and Monday rain risk
3:45 Fire danger
4:36 No big cold front next week
5:41 An active Halloween?
6:15 Simulated radar into next week
6:55 5-day rain totals
7:27 Why the desert floods easier
7:49 Today’s highs, tonight’s lows
8:45 Weekend temperatures
9:15 Monday and Tuesday
9:41 Long-range outlook
10:17 Channel member shout-outs
10:58 Wrap-up
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