A Super El Niño is building in the Pacific, and it could reshape Texas weather this fall and winter. Meteorologist Trey Greenwood (Convective Chronicles) breaks down what El Niño is, why this one is being called "super," and what it could mean for rain, temperatures, snow, and severe weather across Texas.
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THE TEXAS OUTLOOK (fall/winter 2026–27)
🌧️ Precipitation: above average for much of Texas, best odds central and east, especially early
🌡️ Temperatures: near normal to start, then trending colder than normal into early 2027
❄️ Winter weather: above-average snowfall chances, mainly the northern half of Texas, best December–February; Panhandle into Northwest Texas favored January–February
🌪️ Severe weather: near-normal tornado activity, favoring northern and eastern Texas, possibly front-loaded
This is a seasonal outlook, an educated guess based on the background pattern, long-range models, and past El Niño winters. It is not a forecast for any specific day or location. Stay with us for day-to-day forecasts as each storm system approaches.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
0:23 The Super El Niño
1:06 What Is El Niño?
1:59 How Fast the Pacific Warmed
2:54 Measuring It: The RONI
3:40 What Makes It "Super"
3:52 Where We Are Now
4:12 Why It Matters: The Jet Stream
4:50 El Niño vs. La Niña
5:23 How Strong It Could Get
6:55 Into 2027
7:17 What It Means for Texas
7:35 The Wild Card: The PDO
8:45 Comparing Past El Niño Winters
9:08 Precipitation Patterns
10:30 Temperature Patterns
11:29 Texas Rain Outlook
12:42 Texas Temperature Outlook
13:18 Snow & Winter Weather
13:50 Severe Weather
14:26 The Bottom Line
DATA & GRAPHICS
Ocean temperatures: NOAA NCEI OISST v2.1 · NOAA Coral Reef Watch
ENSO index (RONI) & seasonal outlooks: NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Seasonal model forecasts: NOAA CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
RONI forecast values: NMME & CFSv2 ensemble means via 4070weather.com
Past El Niño winter composites: NOAA NCEI nClimDiv
Tornado data: NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Jet stream patterns: based on NOAA Climate.gov
Snowfall graphic: Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) · bennollweather.com
Map data: Natural Earth
Graphics: Texas Storm Chasers
Music: "Histories" by Falls · "Cascades" by Acreage (Soundstripe)
Seasonal outlook by Meteorologist Trey Greenwood, Convective Chronicles.
#ElNino #TexasWeather #WinterOutlook
📲 Free Texas Storm Chasers app: https://texasweather.app/
📡 Live radar: https://texasstormchasers.com/radar
⭐ Become a member: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoIfgmxArIATc2EpHD3W9EA/join
🛒 TSC store: https://texasstormchasers.store
🔗 All our links: https://www.Linktr.ee/texasstormchasers
THE TEXAS OUTLOOK (fall/winter 2026–27)
🌧️ Precipitation: above average for much of Texas, best odds central and east, especially early
🌡️ Temperatures: near normal to start, then trending colder than normal into early 2027
❄️ Winter weather: above-average snowfall chances, mainly the northern half of Texas, best December–February; Panhandle into Northwest Texas favored January–February
🌪️ Severe weather: near-normal tornado activity, favoring northern and eastern Texas, possibly front-loaded
This is a seasonal outlook, an educated guess based on the background pattern, long-range models, and past El Niño winters. It is not a forecast for any specific day or location. Stay with us for day-to-day forecasts as each storm system approaches.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
0:23 The Super El Niño
1:06 What Is El Niño?
1:59 How Fast the Pacific Warmed
2:54 Measuring It: The RONI
3:40 What Makes It "Super"
3:52 Where We Are Now
4:12 Why It Matters: The Jet Stream
4:50 El Niño vs. La Niña
5:23 How Strong It Could Get
6:55 Into 2027
7:17 What It Means for Texas
7:35 The Wild Card: The PDO
8:45 Comparing Past El Niño Winters
9:08 Precipitation Patterns
10:30 Temperature Patterns
11:29 Texas Rain Outlook
12:42 Texas Temperature Outlook
13:18 Snow & Winter Weather
13:50 Severe Weather
14:26 The Bottom Line
DATA & GRAPHICS
Ocean temperatures: NOAA NCEI OISST v2.1 · NOAA Coral Reef Watch
ENSO index (RONI) & seasonal outlooks: NOAA Climate Prediction Center
Seasonal model forecasts: NOAA CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
RONI forecast values: NMME & CFSv2 ensemble means via 4070weather.com
Past El Niño winter composites: NOAA NCEI nClimDiv
Tornado data: NOAA Storm Prediction Center
Jet stream patterns: based on NOAA Climate.gov
Snowfall graphic: Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) · bennollweather.com
Map data: Natural Earth
Graphics: Texas Storm Chasers
Music: "Histories" by Falls · "Cascades" by Acreage (Soundstripe)
Seasonal outlook by Meteorologist Trey Greenwood, Convective Chronicles.
#ElNino #TexasWeather #WinterOutlook