Active and stormy weather returns to Texas just in time for Easter Weekend. It won’t be rainy everywhere every day this weekend. Some storms will be severe, with a risk of large to nasty-size hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall capable of producing flooding. A few tornadoes may also occur, but that risk is not guaranteed and depends on a few different scenarios. You can watch this morning’s Texas weather roundup briefing below. Timestamps for quick browsing are available below the video.

Weather Video

Video Chapters
00:00 Introduction
03:05 Texas Wildfire Risk
03:30 Severe Storm Threat [Today/Tonight]
06:10 Saturday/Saturday Night Storm Threat
08:39 Sunday’s Severe Storm Risk
10:08 Today & Saturday Weather [HRRR Model]
12:58 Stormy Weather Continues! [GFS Model]
15:36 Forecast Rain & Flooding Potential
17:53 Conclusion & Baldyinchiefisms

Weather Writeup

Most of today, the weather department will be calm. A strong cap, or lid on the atmosphere, will limit thunderstorm chances through much of the afternoon hours. A slow-moving cold front will progress southeast into Northwest Texas, Big Country, and Permian Basin by early evening. Temperatures will be relatively cool northwest of that front near the surface, but an unstable airmass will continue to exist above the surface in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. That’ll result in a risk of large hail and strong wind gusts with storms in the cooler airmass.

Storm Chances This Afternoon into Saturday Morning

Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from dinner-time through Saturday morning in Northwest Texas, western Texoma, Big Country, and the Concho Valley. The higher chance of storms this afternoon through early evening will be near the Red River north into Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with the most intense storms. A few tornadoes are possible in southern Oklahoma with inital storms that are more discrete. If one of those storms fires up south of the Red River around dinner-time through early evening, we can’t rule out a spitially-limited tornado threat in Northwest Texas.

Scattered storms become more likely late this evening into the morning hours on Saturday near the cool front in Northwest Texas, Big Country, and Concho Valley. Some of those storms will likely produce large hail, damaging wind gusts, and very heavy rain. Storms will move to the northeast; and may result in a ‘training’ effect where a line of storms move over the same locations. Flash flooding would be a considerable concern if that scenario played out. Showers and storms will move east into Texoma and North Texas tomorrow morning. Storms should be weakening and less rowdy, but some storms may still produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and hail. 

Storm Chances Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Morning

New scattered thunderstorms will develop near the stationary cold front in Northwest Texas, Big Country, Concho Valley, and the eastern Permian Basin early Saturday afternoon. These storms will be in an enviornment supportive of severe weather – including a risk of large to very large hail, damaging straight-line winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The tornado threat tomorrow is a tad-bit higher than today, but still on the low side. Storms will move northeast, similiar to what we’re expecting tonight. Eventually, as an upper-level storm system arrives, that system will begin pushing the cold front to the east/southeast.

Easter Sunday’s Storm Chances

A line or cluster of showers and storms will accompony the front as it moves across the eastern half of Texas Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. As we get into Sunday afternoon, depending on the speed of the cold front, we may see another round of scattered severe storms fire up in the Ark-La-Tex, East Texas, and Southeast Texas. Large hail and localized strong wind gusts would be possible. Rain chances will end in Texas Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. 

Monday through Thursday

Wet weather over the next seven days will bring one to five inches of rain to the northern two-thirds of Texas, east of the Trans-Pecos, including in areas that are in extreme to exceptional drought. Flooding concerns increase this weekend in Texoma, Northwest Texas, Big Country, and North Texas where some rain totals could exceed 6 inches.

I hope we can have a ‘break day’ on Monday without thunderstorm activity. Regardless, we expect daily chances for severe storms to begin on Tuesday as the dryline sets up shop in the Texas Panhandle, West Texas, and Permian Basin. Isolated to scattered storms will likely develop by late afternoon most days next week with a risk of severe weather. Those storms could congeal into one or more clusters by the evening hours, and move east across several regions of Texas late into the night-time hours and the following morning with h