Scattered thunderstorms reached Texoma and North Texas this morning, somewhat contradicting my forecast video posted yesterday morning. These storms have continued into the late morning, now extending from the eastern Big Country to southern areas of the D/FW Metroplex.
It seems likely that storms will continue to develop further south this afternoon into southern North Texas, possibly moving into Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. Some increase in intensity is expected, with large hail and localized damaging wind gusts possible. Flash flooding from heavy rainfall may occur, as the storms are slow-moving.
Shortly after the video was published, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded the Texas Panhandle and West Texas region near Interstate 27 to a level 3 out 5 risk of severe storms today. Scattered severe storms are possible in the Permian Basin as well.
Additional scattered severe storms are expected to develop after 3-5PM in the Permian Basin, West Texas, and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Like in the last few days, storms will be slow-moving to the east. Very large hail, potentially baseball-sized or larger, is anticipated from the most intense storms. Localized damaging wind gusts and heavy rain are also threats associated with these storms.
A modest increase in tornado potential may occur in the southeastern Texas Panhandle after 7 PM if we have an intense supercell ongoing, and that threat may persist past 10 PM. By midnight, any ongoing storms in the eastern Panhandle should be moving into Oklahoma or Northwest Texas and weakening shortly thereafter.
It seems less likely that we will see a complex of storms moving southeast across Texas again tonight. Famous last words, I know. As we move into Friday afternoon and evening, another round of storms may take shape in the Texas Panhandle and West Texas.
Large hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain are probable with the most intense storms. A complex or line may emerge from those initial storms and head towards the Big Country and Northwest Texas Friday night, with storm chances continuing in the Texas Panhandle into Saturday morning.
Isolated storms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening along the Texas/New Mexico state line, but overall, it appears to be a much less active day.
VIDEO CHAPTERS:
00:00 Introduction
00:45 Thursday Morning Live Radar
01:32 Storms Moving into Central Texas & Brazos Valley
02:03 Severe Storm Risk: 3 PM to Midnight Today
03:28 Friday’s Severe Storm Threat
04:02 Storm Timing: Today – Saturday (HRRR model)
07:36 Forecast Rain through Saturday Night
08:38 Conclusion & Baldyinchiefisms