Multiple zones of severe thunderstorm potential are underway or about to develop across Texas. For simplicity’s sake, I’ll divide them up into regions.
Central Texas, Brazos Valley, and Southeast Texas
A line of storms is moving southeast into the aforementioned regions. These storms produced 67 MPH winds in Waco, along with flooding from heavy rain across southern North Texas. As these storms have moved into an unstable area, they have intensified. We expect the cluster of storms to continue moving east-southeast at 30 to 40 MPH through the early evening hours. This means storms will reach Bryan, College Station, Brenham, Crockett, Groveton, and Lufkin over the next several hours. The western edge of the line may also move into Georgetown and Austin this afternoon. Strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and perhaps hail are possible with the most intense storms. Houston may see a weakening line of storms arriving around 9-10PM. We expect the cluster to weaken after sunset.
Texas Panhandle, West Texas, Permian Basin
A tornado watch will soon be issued for the Panhandle and West Texas, with a severe thunderstorm watch possible in the Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Isolated to widely scattered supercell thunderstorms will develop by dinner time. These storms will be slow-moving to the east at around 10 to 20 MPH. Plenty of instability, moisture, and adequate wind shear aloft will support the possibility of giant hail from the most intense storms – softball-sized or larger than four inches in diameter. Localized damaging wind gusts over 60 MPH, and a few tornadoes are also possible.
There may be an increase in the tornado threat with any intense supercell storms moving off the Caprock in the southeastern Texas Panhandle after 6-7 PM through 10 PM. Storms in the Permian Basin will also carry a large hail threat before weakening after 10 PM. A few storms in the eastern Texas Panhandle may continue through midnight, eventually moving into western Oklahoma. I’m hopeful we won’t experience another large cluster of storms moving across Texas tonight, though we may see those storms in Oklahoma make a run at the Red River in Texoma tomorrow morning.
You can track the storms with our live weather center stream here. Interactive weather radar can be found on our website as well.