The threat of flash flooding and heavy rain will increase across the eastern half of Texas this evening, overnight, and into Thursday morning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms, producing frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall, will develop this evening across portions of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Central Texas, and North Texas.
Flash flood outlook for Wednesday, June 11th, 2025, highlights a moderate risk for flooding across parts of Central Texas, with multiple rounds of storms expected this afternoon and tonight.
This activity will slowly move east and southeast across the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas into Thursday morning. The slow-moving nature of tonight’s thunderstorms, combined with the tropically rich moisture in the atmosphere, will allow for very heavy rains.
As the soils in the aforementioned regions are now saturated and unable to absorb additional water, runoff will occur with any further rainfall, leading to the rapid development of flooding. We are concerned that there may be considerable flooding in some locations tonight, with the potential for five or more inches of rainfall.
Some storms through the day and overnight may also become strong to severe, with the risk of penny-sized hail, localized damaging wind gusts, and a non-zero risk of a brief tornado. Thunderstorms will produce frequent and nearly continuous cloud-to-ground lightning. And thunder roars, go indoors.
High water on roadways is extremely difficult to see at night. Please be mindful that there may be flooding if you’re traveling overnight, and consider reducing your speed so you have enough time and distance to stop before encountering any unexpected floodwaters.
Thunderstorm activity will decrease going into late Thursday morning and afternoon, but some activity could persist throughout the day across the state of Texas.
You can watch our 24/7 live weather stream here on our website to keep up to date with the latest warnings and radar.
Video Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
01:12 Tonight’s Flash Flood Risk
02:20 Thursday’s Flash Flood Risk
02:47 Friday’s Flash Flood Risk
02:57 Severe Storm Risk – Today
04:03 Severe Storm Risk – Thursday
04:27 Storm Timing – Today & Thursday (HRRR model)
05:52 Friday through the Weekend (GFS Model)
07:23 Rain Total Forecast (WPC)
08:08 Long-Range Weather Outlook (CPC)
08:46 Baldyinchiefisms & Conclusion