Summer has officially arrived in Texas with the departure of our Jetstream and the onset of an upper-level high-pressure area, commonly referred to as a heat dome. Fortunately, we won’t see this heat dome settle directly over Texas for an extended period, which provides some relief from constant triple-digit temperatures.
By early next week, the strongest part of the upper-level high pressure will be positioned over the eastern United States. However, it will still be hot and humid, with triple-digit high temperatures expected across the Borderland and Trans-Pecos regions, extending into the Permian Basin and south into the Rio Grande Valley. Some areas may reach temperatures between 105°F and 112°F.
We can also expect chances for popup thunderstorms to persist several days this week across the Coastal Plains, Southeast Texas, the Golden Triangle, and occasionally in adjacent inland regions. The highest likelihood of isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms will occur during the afternoon hours, with storms quickly diminishing near and after sunset.
On Wednesday afternoon and evening, we should monitor conditions across Texoma, Northwest Texas, the Big Country, and North Texas for a fast-moving upper-level storm system that mostly passes north of Texas. However, it could be close enough to trigger a few strong to severe storms, which may bring localized damaging wind gusts, small hail, and frequent lightning.
As temperatures rise and no widespread rain is forecasted for West Texas, the wildfire threat will gradually increase throughout the week in the Borderland, Trans-Pecos, Permian Basin, Davis Mountains, Guadalupe Mountains, and Big Bend regions.